The Ministry of economy did not prepare budget projections for the Urals price, $25. The calculations Department that were used to discuss anti-crisis plan of the government, proceeded from the forecast that the average price of oil of $40 per barrel, according to the newspaper “Kommersant”.
According to the publication, these calculations do not allow to keep the budget deficit in the border of 5.1%. In this situation, the government will have to make further cuts in government spending and incomes of state employees. This will lead to increasing GDP, which is entirely in the forecasts of the Ministry of economy is not reflected.
According to the publication, the oil price is $40 a barrel will be expected to stabilize the rate of decline of the economy. Priced at $25, inflation will not be 8-8,5% and 8.8–9.2 percent, investments will decrease by 6.7% and real wages will be reduced to 4.8% (against 3.9% in the baseline scenario of the Ministry of economy).
The current exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar, the Ministry of economy considers undervalued: in the base forecast average annual exchange rate is 68,2 RUB per USD (that is, at $40 per barrel under monotonic growth of oil, the Russian currency will strengthen by the end of the year to 66-67 RUB per USD), in conservative — 75,7 RUB per USD (could be slightly stronger, even with some reduction in oil prices).
In the presence of large international reserves of the Central Bank a further reduction of the current account in 2017 should not cause a new strong decline in the rate, however, the zeroing of the indicator faces strong volatility of the ruble over the year and increases the risks of change of exchange rate policy of the Central Bank.