Renewable energy and natural gas will be the main engines of world energy in the next 20 years. This will occur through improved technology and falling costs, as well as the implementation of the programme of curbing climate change, says chief economist at BP Spencer Dale in an article for the Financial Times.
The prospects of oil Dale believes is less clear, but the demand for it, according to him, will be guaranteed a likely twofold increase in the world fleet in the next 20 years.
Most strongly reduced the demand for coal, says the economist, as China, which is its main consumer, shifting to a scheme growth, less tied to carbon energy.
Dale notes that a reduction in the consumption of coal will go in conjunction with reducing greenhouse gas emissions, based on energy efficiency improvements and switching to fuels with low carbon content.
Overall, according to Dale, the world energy demand in coming decades will experience significant growth. With the global economy, Asian countries will need more energy in order to increase economic activity and standard of living, the economist noted.
With regard to the oil market, Dale expects an increase in demand due to the weakening of the proposals. In particular, he believes that shale oil production in the US has passed its peak in the spring of last year and will likely continue to decline throughout this year.
Based on these trends, and even taking into account the future increase in Iranian supplies, the oil market in the second half probably comes closer to the equilibrium position, says Dale. With a significant oversupply of inventory will continue and it will take some time for a cure, the economist added. As a result, by the end of the year the market will appear at least some signs of trend change, concluded Dale.