For a rainy day: how did the Russian consumption for the year


The economic crisis has forced Russians to change consumer behavior and move on to “total savings”, said today the head of VTB 24 Mikhail Zadornov. “The population saves at all, preferring to pay the loans and reduce the debt burden,” said Zadornov. Savings applied even to food, because many Russians switched to cheaper products, he added. Consumer model in 2015 has changed savings, confirmed in published today the Ministry of economic development. In terms of the shrinking incomes of the population forced to abandon the “optional” expenses and save money in the jug. In 2015 the Russians for the first time in 18 years, spent more than earned, follows from the data of Rosstat.

How many people lays a “rainy day”?

The entire 2015 consumer behavior of Russians demonterova crisis on the background of the worsening economic situation, a sharp currency fluctuations and double-digit inflation was sharply reduced consumer demand, records the monitoring of socio-economic development from the Ministry of economic development published on 10 February. Savings rate — how much the Russians had set aside for a “rainy day” relative to disposable income peaked during the last five years is 15.4%.

Savings have grown last year in 1,5 times, follows from the data of the Ministry of economic development. Change the financial behavior of Russians strongly struck on the retail trade: it is “completed in 2015 with the worst results in over a 40 year period”.

How many people would spend on the currency?

In 2015, the population on average was invested in currency is not as strong as in 2014: the share of the income directed on purchase of currency, declined from 5.8% to 4.2%. By the end of year figure is reduced to 3.1% (data for December). Actually it could mean that people simply become less of money on hand, and dollars and the Euro became more expensive due to depreciation of the ruble.

On 21 January, the dollar rate on the Moscow stock exchange rose “inside day” almost before 86 RUR — historical maximum. From the beginning of 2016, the ruble fell by almost 7%. Today, one dollar given in exchange for approximately 78,8 rubles (as of 14:50 Moscow time). The ruble still looks expensive, if you look at the fall in oil prices since the beginning of the year (minus 17%), reports Bloomberg.

As decreased income and increased expenses?

“Belt-tightening” was due to the fact that the growth of money incomes and wages lagged behind inflation. In 2015, wages in real terms fell by 9.5%, and real disposable income are those that remain after all required payments and for inflation, declined by 4%.

In December, the decline in real disposable income was only 0.7% — but this is not to say the termination of the crisis, and is mainly due to the low base in December 2014, according to the monitoring, the Ministry of economic development.

This increases the volume of overdue wages: overall, in 2015 the rate has increased by 78.1%. However, he is far from a critical level: the level of overdue indebtedness is less than 1% of the monthly wage Fund in the country.

For the first time since 1998, the difference between money income and expenditures of the population became negative (418 billion rubles, according to Rosstat), experts of the Center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting (CMASF).

Higher prices and why?

In 2015, consumer inflation amounted to 12.9% of the second year, the rate was double digit. But the main contribution to the prices growth has made the devaluation of the ruble: on the assessment of the Ministry of economic development, inflation 2015, 60% was due to the weakening of the ruble (about 8 percentage points in the growth rate of prices).

However, during the year, a contribution of a weak ruble in the growth of prices declined due to falling demand. By the end of the year, the contribution of the ruble devaluation to inflation amounted to no more than 6 percentage points, according to the monitoring. Another factor pushing prices up — food counter-sanctions, but by the end of 2015, their impact was minor, the document says.

Highest growth rate was observed in the food market: a year products have risen in price by 14%. “In the course of the year was a significant transformation of the population’s consumption in favor of cheaper products mainly of plant origin, which is reflected in the accelerated growth of prices last, which was 1.2 times above the average”, — notes the Ministry.

The structure of inflation over the past two years has changed significantly. More expensive steel food products, the cost of which has grown at a faster rate than General inflation. In 2015, the high growth of prices for non-food goods (excluding petrol): in this sector, prices rose by 14.5%, against 8% a year earlier. And among the more significant services just went up those that are most dependent on the exchange rate. Tourism, insurance services, air travel, consumption of which has declined sharply.