The twentieth anniversary of the gas
According to a BP forecast, in which London was represented by the head of the company Robert Dudley and chief economist Spencer Dale, in the period from 2014 to 2035 world energy demand will grow by 34% (average 1.4% annually). The basis of growth of demand (about 60%) make oil and gas. By 2035 they will account for almost 80% of all energy supplies.
The most rapid growth will increase the demand for gas each year until 2035 it will increase by 1.8%. This will allow you to become a gas, instead of coal, the second largest source of energy in the global energy mix. For 20 years natural gas consumption in the world will exceed the current total production of this fuel in Russia and the U.S., predicts BP.
On the background of increasing demand for gas in the next 20 years will grow its production by 5.6% annually. This will significantly increase the share of shale gas from 10% to 25%.
Oil continues decline
The demand for oil will grow two times slower than the gas — 0.9% per year, while its share in the energy mix will continue to decline.
The largest consumer of oil will be China. But even after 20 years, oil consumption per capita in China will be only 27% of American.
Oil supplies will increase by 2035 to 19 million barrels per day. The main part of deliveries will occur in countries outside OPEC. Speech, including, goes and on supplies from the U.S. shale oil by 2030, the U.S. must break oil reliance. The cartel will only have to try to maintain its market share at 40%.
Russia will retain leadership
BP analysts believe that in the next 20 years Russia will remain the largest energoexport in the world, ensuring that by 2035 more than 4% of the global primary energy demand and 10% of world production of fossil fuels.
On the growing gas market Russia within 20 years will increase its production by 30 percent to 755 billion cubic meters oil Production, the demand for which will grow much more modestly, in 2035 will remain at about 11 million barrels per day (the third largest figure after the United States and Saudi Arabia).
In Russia by 2035, the consumption of renewable energy will increase 10-fold, but its share in the energy balance will still be extremely small compared to other BRICS countries (2% versus an average of 8%). The basis of the energy balance will continue to be natural gas (52%) and oil (22%). Gas will remain the main fuel for electricity generation.
By 2035 in Russia intensively (38%) will increase the consumption of energy in transport.
Global growth factors
As noted by BP chief economist Spencer Dale, the demand for energy will grow “in an increasingly global economy” despite factors such as the slowdown of the Chinese economy. Key factors in the growth of energy consumption by BP in their prediction refers to an increase of income and population of the Earth. By 2035, the number of energy consumers, will rise by 1.5 billion people, and global GDP will increase by more than 2 times, indicates BP.
Dale acknowledges that the slowdown of China’s economy has seriously affected the energy demand. At the same time, it notes that this factor would disproportionately affect the global coal consumption.
Another region which does not affect the growth in energy demand, will be Europe in 2035 the demand for energy there will be at the level of 1985, despite the fact that the European economy by 2035 will grow by 150% compared to 2014.
BP predicts that the energy mix will change in the next 20 years, the demand for more environmentally friendly fuels will grow faster than the rest.
A quarter of the increase in world demand for energy will provide renewable energy. Demand (including for biofuels) will grow steadily by 6.6% per year. They have a third of the increase in the electricity generation sector. By 2035 the share of renewables in the global energy mix will increase from 3% to 9%. For comparison: the share of coal will account for less than 25% — and this is the worst performance since the beginning of the industrial revolution.
Changes in the energy balance will reduce the rate of growth in carbon dioxide emissions in half. By 2035, this figure will add 0.9% per year compared with 2.1% in the last 20 years.
At the same time, Dudley noted that “to achieve international goals to limit carbon emissions may require additional steps in the sphere of regulation.”