The conflict for years
Experts close to the Kremlin Center for political conjuncture has revised the forecasts for the settlement of the conflict in the South-East of Ukraine. They believe the most likely scenario of freezing the conflict for years to come, if not forever, said in today’s report “the Infinite deadlock. Status and prospects of political settlement between Ukraine and the republics of Donbass”. The probability of a pessimistic scenario of frozen conflict for many years, the experts of the centre estimated at 50%.
In the report submitted at the end of December, was considered the most likely scenario of freezing the conflict for 3-5 years, but a new report from the likelihood of its implementation is estimated at 30%. The probability of a “catastrophic scenario” of the resumption of hostilities or permanent collisions, which results in blocking the negotiation process for an indefinite period, is estimated at 15%.In this scenario no one is interested now, experts believe: the parties to the conflict lack the resources to radically change the military situation in their favour.
The least likely (5%) experts call “the optimistic scenario” reintegration today uncontrollable Kiev territories in the Ukraine by the end of this year.
The revision of the forecast of development of the conflict is attributable to several factors, including the situation in Ukraine and changing attitude to the prospects of settlement by intermediaries, explains the General Director of the Center for political conjuncture Alexei Chesnakov. Inside Ukraine can negatively impact the performance of the Minsk agreements can permanent political crisis, which next week could lead to a weakening of the Pro-government coalition in the Parliament and even to the resignation of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
The second factor is the significant increase in time to process the rendering on the second reading the amendments to the Constitution regarding the special status of Donbass, the expert specifies. To make a decision on this issue, the Parliament now has until September, while the amendment also tied the adoption of the laws on the special status and elections, and in the coordination of the parameters of the elections in recent months has been the rapprochement between the parties is still captured in five points, explains Chesnakov.
The European intermediaries — German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande Ukrainian settlement can go by the wayside, as both have elections coming up next year, Russia will continue to demand a literal fulfillment of the Minsk agreements, as Moscow is not profitable to deviate and to follow the tastes of Kiev, indicates Chesnakov.
The reasons for pessimism
The current state of Affairs in the negotiation process, the authors of the report called gradual regression. A complex of measures on execution of the Minsk agreements was approved on 12 February last year, but the year at least partially made possible to recognize only five of the 15 offices: a large-scale fighting has ceased, the part of arms was assigned, began working sub-groups (political, military, humanitarian and economic issues). “However, do not show any positive dynamics, either fully implemented items relating to socio-economic and political parties, all political points of the set of measures should acknowledge the serious deterioration of the situation, expressed in the change of the Ukrainian side of the basic conditions for their implementation regress”, indicated in the report.
The Ukrainian side has passed the first reading of the amendments to the Constitution, but these edits special status of Donbass only enshrined in the transitional provisions and the law on the special status envisages a special procedure for the control period of only three years, whereas DND and LNR require to prescribe regulations on their special status in the text of the Constitution on a regular basis. This is their position supported by Russia.
In the matter of holding election parties categorically do not want to make concessions to each other, indicated in the report. Stumbling blocks remain issues: the election system, the right to participation in elections of Ukrainian political parties, the activities of the Ukrainian media, the organization of the voting process and the vote temporarily displaced persons.
If Kiev will continue to refuse to dialogue with DND and LNR elections, they can get in 2016, and this will be the last step in the design of the final infrastructure of the sovereign state of education, experts warn.
Think of how the situation will develop, longer than one-two years, is extremely difficult, however it is now clear that there are no preconditions for a political settlement of the conflict as indicated in the Minsk agreements, says head of the Ukrainian Center of applied political studies “Penta” Volodymyr Fesenko. In the current composition of the Ukrainian Parliament, except the faction of the Opposition bloc, no people, ready to make concessions the DPR and the LPR, the situation will not change and the eventual early elections, categorical Fesenko.
This week, on 9 and 10 February, in Minsk held talks in the composition of the sub-groups on political, humanitarian and economic issues, but about any rapprochement between the negotiating parties it is not declared. Was canceled previously scheduled for the Friday videoconference participants of the Tripartite liaison group (ex-President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma, representative of the Russian Federation Boris Gryzlov and OSCE representative Martin Sajdik). They agreed to meet on February 17, and this is expected to hold talks in the “Normandy format” foreign Ministers of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France. However, the preparation for it is complicated by the fact that in his resignation on Wednesday gave French foreign Minister Laurent Fabius.