In 2016, the banks will need to spend on additional provisions for losses on loans more than 1 trillion rubles, calculated the chief analyst of Sberbank Mikhail Matovnikov. In 2014-2015, the banks have created reserves of $ 3.1 trillion, if we add another trillion, the reserves reach 10% of the total loan portfolio of banks, analyst from Sberbank.
As says the chief economist of the Eurasian development Bank Yaroslav Lissovolik, reserves in the amount of 10% of the Bank loans is really a lot in comparison with indicators of previous years. “This suggests that the quality of the loan portfolio deteriorated amid the economic downturn. It is possible that this indicator will continue to deteriorate because of obvious signs of economic recovery yet. therefore, banks need a strategy that focused on reducing risks and creating sufficient reserves,” notes the economist.
Most of the reserves that the banks create in 2016, will have on loans to firms and companies: the peak of creation of reserves for loans to private persons has been passed, according to Matovnikov.
That reserves this year will exceed 1 trillion rubles, is shared by other experts. Analyst PSB Dmitry Monastyrshina estimates of allocations to reserves in 2016 1.3 trillion, S&P analyst Victor Nikolskiy predicts that the volume of new reserves will amount to 1.5 to 2 trillion rubles.
Overall for banks to create reserves in such amount is an easy task, given the reduction in the cost of resources and the eventual restoration of the margins of banks, according to Monastyrshin. Besides the industry support was provided by the program of recapitalization of banks via OFZ to 803 billion rubles, he adds.
At the same time, individual banks against the background of growth of reserves may have problems with capital, warns Monastyrshin. Allocations to reserves from the profits of the banks are, if there isn’t, recorded the greatest loss, which puts pressure on capital, says the analyst of NRA Karina Artemiev. Profit of the banking sector in 2015 amounted to 192 billion rubles., and a large part generated the savings Bank. According to recent forecasts from the Central Bank, banks ‘ profits in 2016 may be 200-400 billion rubles. Therefore, due to the low profits and lack of capital in some banks the trend towards consolidation in the sector, rehabilitation and care of the weak players will continue on the background of the provisions, says Monastyrshin. This will contribute to the reluctance of some shareholders to endlessly pour money into banks because of low profitability of the business, adds Artemiev. The only thing that would make life easier for banks is the reduction in capital requirements from 10% to 8%, the analyst adds.
Matovnikov notes that the creation of reserves in some banks does not indicate macroeconomic problems, and is direct evidence of deliberate withdrawal of assets. If you look at the statistics, out of 180 bankruptcies in 2014-2015 70 materials were sent to law enforcement agencies, the data supports his claim Matovnikov.