“If I remember correctly, $25 per barrel in 2016 the average price, respectively, and $35 in the next two years. In the base scenario, $35 in 2016 the average price, and then $45. The difference is quite significant,” he said on Friday, February 12, the first Chairman of the Central Bank Dmitry Tulin journalists (quoted by “Interfax”), adding that these are preliminary figures, the revised macroeconomic forecast the Central Bank will present in March.
Earlier, the head of monetary policy Department of the Central Bank Igor Dmitriev said that the Bank of Russia sees no need to revise risk scenario. Answering the question of which values can drop the price of oil, Dmitriev said: “Such assessments are not. We assume that the price can be under the risk scenario and claimed below $35 per barrel, but no specific evaluation. For the purposes of the scenario there is no such need” (quoted by “Interfax”).
He noted that in risky scenarios possible tightening of monetary policy, but this does not necessarily mean an increase in the key rate. “In some circumstances and keeping rates unchanged may be a tightening, in the interpretation of market participants saw in the second half,” said Dmitriev.
Now the risk scenario of the Bank of Russia assumes average annual oil price of $35 per barrel. The parameters of the stress scenario of macroeconomic development the Central Bank first revealed in December 2015. “In our calculations for the risk scenario we expect oil to be around $35 per barrel. In this scenario the decline in GDP in 2016 will amount to 2-3%, inflation is about 7%,” — said the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina at a press conference following the meeting of the Board of Directors on 11 December 2015.
“The development of the situation in such a scenario is possible in case of substantial slowdown of the Chinese economy and reduce demand for raw materials, the strengthening U.S. dollar on the background of an accelerated normalization of monetary policy by the fed, the increase in the supply of oil from OPEC and its extraction from unconventional sources” — said in a report on monetary policy.
The baseline scenario of macroeconomic development of the Bank of Russia now assumes that oil prices in 2016 will remain at $50 per barrel. “But increased the likelihood that this will not happen and prices will remain lower for a longer period”, — said Nabiullina.