The cold war for a small world: what the Munich speech of Medvedev


Do not “shake”

Relations between Russia and the West reached a new “cold war”. Almost two years after the imposition of the U.S., EU and their allies the first sanctions related to the annexation to Russia of the Crimea, it was openly admitted by Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, speaking Sunday at the Munich security conference.

His performance was not so optimistic and energetic that his partner on the “tandem” of President Vladimir Putin in 2007. Nine years ago the Russian leader accused the West of double standards and attempts to contain Russia through NATO expansion, missile defenses and turn the OSCE into “a vulgar instrument” of their own line. His “Munich speech” Putin said, when oil prices were at its peak, ensuring Russia seven years of continuous economic growth, and the global economic crisis was still a year and a half. Medvedev had to act in a very different economic environment: slower growth in 2011-2013 was decline, oil prices are hovering near minimum 12 years of values, which brings hardly adopted by the Duma budget 2016 to inevitable sequestration. New “cold war”, about a Ghost which started talking in 2007, became a reality.

“Almost daily we announce the most terrible threat for NATO as a whole, separately for Europe, for America and other countries. Shoot the frightening films in which the Russians begin a nuclear war. I sometimes think we in 2016 in 1962 or today?”, — Medvedev complained.

The Prime Minister listed the ways in which in recent years imploded cooperation between his country and the West, not becoming, however, to return to the reasons why this happened — joining in March 2014 the Ukrainian Peninsula of Crimea and the beginning of the armed conflict in the Donbass, instigated, according to Western capitals, Moscow. From his words it appeared that in the Russian capital regret the interrupted collaboration.

“Our intensive dialogue on the future Euro-Atlantic security architecture, global security, regional threats is now especially necessary. Think abnormal that in many ways he’s just completely broken,” — said Medvedev. In his words, “the problem of communication recognize almost all in Western Europe and in Russia”.

Medvedev has noticed that the world needs cooperation, not confrontation and “third world shake-up”.

Without Russia anywhere

From the words of the Russian Prime Minister indicated that the only cooperation between Moscow and the West could help solve the overriding foreign policy crises such as in Syria and Ukraine. While opinion in Western capitals about the role that Russia has played for the escalation of both conflicts, Medvedev to lead did not — he was arguing with him, accusing in the same correspondence of their opponents (not conference the stage with the Prime Minister shared his French colleague Maual Waltz).

“Without some outside influence” Syria would remain a peaceful state, where all communities coexist, I’m sure Medvedev, poprawski the failure of the revolutions of the “Arab spring”, which allegedly was so happy in the West. The same rhetoric Moscow has used previously in relation to Kiev — “the revolution of dignity” took place in 2014, allegedly without direct Western intervention.

In fact, Medvedev had appealed to the Europeans. He was devoted to the passage that the creation of a “zone friends” on the outer contour of the EU has led to the formation of an “exclusion zone”. The speech, the Prime Minister said, is that Eastern and southern flanks of the “European neighbourhood” has labored pockets of instability — this Ukraine with Moldova and the countries of North Africa and the Middle East, including Syria and Libya.

With my sympathy as more European than the Europeans themselves, reminded Medvedev about the problems with the “Schengen area”, which undermines the millions of refugees from the Middle East, and the risks to the “European identity”. “We regret to see the undermining of the need for Russia mechanisms. I mean a collapse, in fact, the Schengen area”, — said the head of government. Complaining is associated with the influx of refugees, the growth of xenophobia, he found it necessary to notice that with illegal immigrants in Europe at the same time penetrate and “hundreds and thousands of extremists”, and generally “people who have a completely alien culture who want to get benefits and do nothing”.

The sincerity of the solidarity of Moscow with the Europeans already have some doubts. In Munich, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko accused Russia of launching a “hybrid war” against EU — Moscow allegedly trying to split Europe, pedalera dangerous influx of refugees, and using advocacy tools. About the same earlier and said the American philanthropist George Soros, the Reuters news Agency, published an overview of how Moscow used the story of allegedly kidnapped migrants “girl Lisa” to mobilize the Russian-speaking population of Germany under anti-government slogans.

To deal with these problems the European capitals and Moscow have together, believes Medvedev. In Ukraine, according to him, there is no better tool to deal with the situation than the Minsk peace agreements. Here Medvedev was not kept and praised sitting next Waltz for “balanced position” of France in the negotiations. One snag — in Moscow re quite sure that Kiev wants to move towards resolution of the conflict by delaying changes to the Constitution on the special status of Donbass. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin noted, “it seems there is neither the will nor the desire to do it, today, in my opinion, it has become obvious to everyone”.

As for Syria, “anti-terrorism equation without Russia can not be solved”, said the Prime Minister. Medvedev also called on Western countries not to frighten Russia ground operation in Syria. “No need to scare anyone ground operation,” Medvedev said. Another request addressed to the West to accuse Russia of deliberate attacks on the civilian population. Many in the West believe that Russian aviation is not just not considered a high number of civilian casualties, but deliberately provokes new waves of refugees. Not so long ago German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that her appalling actions of Russia for military support the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.

Russia in Syria fighting terrorism or solve other tasks, explains Medvedev (apart from the prosecution of a purely geopolitical purposes many, such as the German Die Welt, accused Moscow that it is using Syria as a testing ground for new weapons — not without pride, told President Putin about the missiles “Caliber”, first tested in combat in Syria). “Russia is not engaged there (in Syria), the solution of any special problems, except those declared (counterterrorism), we are defending our national interests,” Medvedev said.

To remove the sanctions

If between Russia and the West now and the cold war, then in its light version, all the same followed from the words of Medvedev — still between West and East no longer dominates the wall forty years ago. The parties must find a way to restore mutual trust, he said

The first step that I want to see made in Moscow — Medvedev does not hide, — the lifting of sanctions. They do not bring any result, but only hurt, and all parties. “This is a road to nowhere,” he said. “Everybody will be worse no doubt!” the Prime Minister said. “

Medvedev drew attention to the Russian economy, yeah, “it’s difficult for us”, but safety margin, minimal debt and significant reserves, “we good”, and “the ruble’s decline opened up new opportunities to increase export potential”. “We understand that the longer the sanction, the less likely the Europeans to maintain their position in the Russian market and as suppliers and as investors,” he said. Therefore, in the opinion of the Russian Prime Minister, “we need to act faster.”

In the last few months in the West was sending a counter-signal: ensure the implementation of the Minsk agreements — sanctions related to the situation in the Donbass will be removed. About it spoke and U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry and the Prime Minister of Bavaria Horst Seehofer and French economy Minister Emmanuel macron. Sanctions relating to the annexation of Crimea will remain until a full return of sovereignty over the Peninsula to Ukraine — at the beginning of this February, the solidarity of Western capitals reaffirmed by its resolution the European Parliament.