MOSCOW, February 15. Russia’s Finance Ministry has calculated variants of development of the Russian economy on the period until 2030. In the conservative variant of the forecast in the absence of reforms, the oil price will remain at $40 per barrel, Russia’s economy will grow by 1-1. 3% per year. This is evidenced by the forecast of the Finance Ministry, seen by the newspaper “Vedomosti”.
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To overcome the current two-year recession, Russia will need four years. In 2016 the economy will shrink by 0.8%, while in 2017 growth will resume, and by 2020, real GDP will not recover to the level of 2014. In General, during 2014-2030, the Russian economy will grow only by 13% and real wages return to the level in 2014 only in 2025.
This inertial scenario of development of economy without structural reforms, and it is not basic, explained to “Vedomosti”, the representative of the Ministry of Finance. “There are others that we consider more correct for Russia and which involved the implementation of reforms,” he said. This internal calculations of the Ministry of Finance and official long-term forecast at the moment, he added.
By the inertial forecast, 2014-2030 average, the average annual economic growth in Russia will amount to 0.8%. The price of oil in nominal terms to exceed $50 per barrel only in 2028 oil Production will stop growing in 2016 and will reduce its exports to stagnate. Imports will grow by 3-4% per year, export is a bit slower and the nominal level 2014 ($498 billion) in the next 14 years and will not reach (the import will reach in 2030). But reach your goal of the Central Bank: inflation in 2017 will slow to 4% and will continue to decline to 2.6% in 2030.
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If nothing is done, including the structure of the budget, a scenario of secular stagnation can be realized, says a Federal official. But most likely yet another target scenario of the Ministry of Finance, he hopes that will allow the economy to reach a growth rate of 2-3%.
This is possible partly due to more expensive oil – $50 per barrel in real terms for the entire period. But the key is structural changes in the economy, particularly the increased return on capital through productivity growth outstripping wage growth, and the increase in the share of investment in GDP, explains the interlocutor of the edition the essence of the task scenarios.
In this case, the economy overcomes the current recession in 2018, increasing to 2030 by 44%; the real wages of Russians are restored to the 2014 to 2022 and then grow at 3% per year.