Which reinforces again the day before the ruble fell after Bloomberg reported that during the meeting the head of the Russian Ministry of energy Alexander Novak, Minister of oil of Saudi Arabia Ali al-Naimi, Venezuela and Qatar, an agreement was reached to freeze oil production at the level of 11 January 2016.
The dollar that fell ahead of the meeting in Doha below 76 rubles, increased by the news about the freezing of production to 77,459 rubles Simultaneously, the Euro rose to RUB 86,66 the Cost of a barrel of Brent crude on the ICE stock exchange, which rose today to $35,54, after the reports from Qatar fell to $33,7.
“The players are disappointed with the results of the meeting of OPEC countries and continue to buy the dollar against the ruble,” — says the trader “Renaissance capital” Levon Atanasyan.
Analyst Nordea Bank Dmitry Savchenko said that the news of the talks, the Russian Minister of energy with representatives of OPEC is closer to neutral than positive. “Hints of reduction of oil production the market is not heard,” he says. According to Alexander Novak, following the meeting, four countries — Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela — are willing to freeze oil production at the January level, if other manufacturers to join the initiative.
According to Savchenko, such verbal intervention is unlikely to be the basis for long-term strengthening of oil prices. “We forecast to the end of the year the price per barrel is $40, but this is due to the reduction of investment in the oil sector. Last year their volume decreased by 15%, we expect a decline of 20%,” says Savchenko.
According to him, this will lead to a reduction in the supply of oil on the market and can have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. “The Outlook for the Russian currency remain vague,” the analyst added.
At the same time, some analysts do not exclude strengthening of the ruble in the medium term. “Stabilization of the production level can lead to a rise in oil prices to $40 per barrel, which will allow the ruble to strengthen to 72 to 74 rubles per dollar,” does not exclude a leading analyst of PSB Dmitry Gritskevich. According to him, this will happen when other manufacturers will join this initiative. “Uncertainty makes the anticipation for the Iran market,” — emphasizes the analyst.
However, according to Gritskevich, the strengthening of the ruble will be constrained “budget” factor (low ruble price of oil). At the moment the ruble value Urals is 2353 RUB/bbl. against the budgeted 2728. RUB/bbl. (including sequestration).
According to chief expert of the Center for economic forecasting of Gazprombank Yegor Sucina, unless there is growth in US production and increased exports, to the middle of the year can be achieved, the balance between supply and demand. “In this case, the oil price can reach $40-50 per barrel, which will be positive for the ruble”, — the expert said in an interview with .
“The fact that something was agreed, is a stabilizing of prices in the market. Instant price growth is not brought, but potentially it can lead to a rise in oil prices,” admits the head of the dealing center of Metallinvestbank Sergey Romanchuk. According to him, if the agreement with the countries of the OPEC will pass, oil prices by the end of the year will be restored gradually, so the ruble can grow up. “In addition, the ruble may receive independent dynamics for strengthening. It can be based on the balance of payments: trade balance remains positive, the outflow of capital is gradually reduced, the repayments are reduced”, — the expert believes.
An additional factor in support of the Russian currency may become declining levels of savings among the population and companies. “They will have to exchange a portion of the purchased currency to get rubles for current expenses,” says Romanchuk.
“It is very difficult to predict how will the events develop further. Now the volatility in the market extreme, very aggressive trying to find new price levels”- commented the head of trading IR “ATON” Yaroslav Podsevatkin. He predicts the dollar in the range of 70-80 rubles.
By 13:50 Moscow time the cost of a barrel of Brent crude on the ICE stock exchange was $34,02, the dollar on the Moscow stock exchange by this moment has reached 77,34 RUB, EUR — RUB 86,43