Ruble broke its consolidation after the news that during the meeting today in the Qatari capital, the heads of the Ministry of energy of RF Alexander Novak, Minister of oil of Saudi Arabia Ali al-Naimi and other OPEC countries had agreed to freeze oil production volumes as of 11 January 2016.
A few minutes after that, the dollar that fell ahead of the meeting in Doha below 76 rubles, soared to RUB 77,459 Simultaneously, the Euro (this morning he for the first time in almost two weeks has fallen below 85 rubles) rose to 86,66 RUB.
The fall of the ruble followed oil prices lower. The cost of a barrel of Brent crude on the ICE stock exchange, which rose today to $35,54, after the reports from Qatar fell to $33,7.
Earlier today, chief analyst at VTB24 Stanislav Kleschev warned that the quotes Brent for the last three days has grown so much that if during the negotiations with participation of Russian and Saudi representatives have not reached agreement on the reduction of production, the speculators will think about profit taking and then oil prices will fall.
According to the chief expert of the Center for economic forecasting of Gazprombank Yegor Sucina, the decision of Russia and OPEC countries, provided that it also will comply with Saudi Arabia, will have a positive impact on oil prices. “Unless there is growth in US production and increased exports, to the middle of the year can be achieved, the balance between supply and demand. In this case, the oil price can reach $40-50 per barrel, which will be positive for the ruble”, — said the expert.
Susin also notes that while the market has not responded to the agreement between the OPEC countries, because the parties agreed to fix the level of production on January 11. “This is significantly higher than those of production quotas, discussed earlier. Therefore, the production volume still remains at a high level,” he explained.
The head of the dealing center Metallinvestbank Sergey Romanchuk notes that immediately after the appearance of this news the price of oil fell, but now is still recovering. “The ruble follows the movement in oil prices. Apparently, market participants had expected the decision will be more rigid and may agree to reduce oil production. The decision to suspend production at a level that was in January, essentially means freezing the situation when the market supply of oil exceeds demand. Market participants at the time saw this decision as a negative,” he says.
According to the International energy Agency (IEA), Saudi Arabia produced in January, 10.2 million barrels per day, it’s a little less than at the peak in June 2015 10.5 million barrels per day. Russia produced about 10.9 million barrels per day in January — a record in the post-Soviet era.
To 12.30 MSK cost of a barrel of Brent crude on the ICE stock exchange was $34,23, the dollar on the Moscow stock exchange by this moment has reached 77,04 rubles., the Euro — 85,944 RUB.