At Goldman Sachs suggest that the agreement between Russia and OPEC will not have any significant impact on the oil market. “Details of the agreement suggest that such freezing will not have much impact on the oil market is still the uncertainty that can materialize” — leads the Agency review of the Bank.
Deutsche Bank also believes that the agreement will have little impact on the market. “Not only that, the conversations have shifted from output only to freeze, this proposal still comes from oil producers, which in any case was not going to increase the volume of production (Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Qatar)”, — quotes Agency the statement.
Bank Barclays believes that even if the agreement is successful, the increase in oil prices, to which it may lead, will be limited. “OPEC was still faced with the dilemma between higher oil prices and market share, to achieve both objectives it is not able,” — said in comments the Barclays.
According to analysts of the Bank, any positive impact on oil prices depends on other major oil producers. “And while the announced agreement is the first concrete step to limit the production and has publicly supported Saudi Arabia, there is a lot of tough negotiations, the agreement is realized”, — noted in comments.
Analysts Commerzbank notice that the success of the agreement will depend on whether it will support Iran and Iraq. “Now that sanctions are lifted, Iran is unlikely to be ready to leave oil output at 2.9 million barrels a day, given that the main priority of Tehran is to regain market share that it lost”, — quotes Reuters the comment Bank.
Citi Futures emphasize that the freeze does not mean a reduction in production. “It’s more a political statement than a measure to stabilize oil prices,” — said in their comments. The company also believes that Iran has no other choice but to rescind this agreement.
“We expect that Iran will reject limitations on the extraction of its oil, which will give exporters another reason for the neglect of the agreements, Saudi Arabia would argue that low prices [for oil] it is the fault of Iran, refused to support the agreement”, — said in comments Citi Futures.
Tuesday, 16 February, the results of the talks in Qatar, representatives from Russia, Qatar, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia decided to freeze oil production at the level of 11 January if other manufacturers will join this initiative.