MOSCOW, February 17. International rating Agency Standard & Poor’s affirmed its long-term sovereign credit rating of Russia in foreign currency at “BB+” with negative Outlook.
While the long-term rating in national currency is confirmed at level “BBB-“, said the Agency.
Fitch affirms Russia at the investment level “BBB-” with negative Outlook
In turn, the short-term foreign currency rating is affirmed at level “B”, in the national – level “A-3”.
In accordance with the calendar of the S&P rating of Russia was to be revised on 18 March. However, given the decline the Agency forecast oil prices, it was decided to evaluate the rating of the Russian Federation ahead of schedule, the report says.
In particular, under the new rating, S&P, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2016 will be 40$./Barr., and in 2018 it will increase to $ 50/Barr. versus the previous estimate of 55 million./Barr. in 2016 and USD 70/Barr. in 2018.
“We don’t expect agreement dated February 16, between Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela for the freezing of oil production at the level of January 2016 will have a significant impact on our forecasts of prices for hydrocarbons, – underline analysts S&P. it is Worth noting that the first reaction of the oil market to the news was negative”.
In addition, the Agency lowered its forecast for average growth of Russia’s GDP in 2016-2019 to 0.5% per year. S&P also expects the budget deficit of the Russian Federation in 2016-2019 will increase on average up to 3.5% of GDP.
The last time the Agency affirmed the rating of the Russian Federation at the same level and with the same forecast in October 2015. Short-term rating of Russia in foreign currency was confirmed on level “B” and the long-term and short-term ratings in national currency are confirmed at the investment level “BBB-/A-3”.
Agency experts then indicated that Russia maintains a low level of debt, to predict that in 2015-2018 Russia will maintain a moderate level of public debt.
The Rating Of Russia
Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch’s lead sovereign credit rating of Russia from autumn of 1996. To 2003-2005 national credit rating of Russia in foreign currency were considered non-investment by all agencies. Currently recognizes obligations of the Russian investment only Fitch.
A rating by S&P
S&P has assigned the first Russian rating of 4 October 1996: BB (non-investment, risky commitments). Two months before the default of August 17 1998, the rating was lowered to B+, August 13 – a to B and then lowered to predeath: CCC and CCC-.
January 27, 1999, the rating was lowered to SD (a partial default) after refusing to repay the third tranche of currency bonds. The recovery rating began on 8 December 2000: first to the level of B-. January 31, 2005 S&P for the first time has appropriated Russia investment rating BBB-.
15 December 2005 it was upgraded to BBB, and September 4 to BBB+. After the onset of the global economic crisis in 2008-2009 the rating was lowered to BBB. April 25, 2014 on the background of events in Ukraine, the rating was lowered to BBB – with a negative Outlook. January 26, 2015, the Agency downgraded the rating of Russia to BB+ with a negative Outlook.