The organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) has lowered its forecast of global growth for the next two years, it follows from the OECD. OECD experts expect that in 2016, global economic growth will slow to 3% (compared with the previous version of the report, the forecast was reduced by 0.3 p. p.), and in 2017 will amount to 3.3% (previously expected 3.6 percent).
Thus, the expected global growth for 2016 was set at the level of growth in 2015 is the lowest forecast in the past five years.
“The deterioration of the forecast of indicators reflects a wide range of disappointing data for the fourth quarter of 2015, as well as weakness and volatility in global financial markets. These trends are presented in the economies of both developed and developing countries”, — noted in the OECD report.
In the new version of the forecast of experts of the OECD downgraded the expected performance for most countries. For example, the U.S. economy, according to analysts, will increase in 2016 from 2.5%, as previously expected, and only 2% failed even to 2015 (2.4 percent). The growth of the Eurozone economy will shrink to 1.4%, 0.4 percentage point below the previous forecast, the forecast of growth of canadian GDP reduced by 0.6 percentage points, Germany by 0.5 percentage points, Italy — by 0.4 p. p., the UK — 0.3%.
The economy of Brazil the OECD experts expect deeper fall: last year the country’s GDP declined 3.8% in 2016, according to the new version forecast to fall by 4%. Once a new forecast is 2.8% worse than the previous, due to increased political uncertainty and inflation.
The Outlook for China’s economy remain unchanged, China is still waiting for the slowdown to 6.5 versus 6.9% last year. But the forecast for the economy of India improved in 2016 it can grow not 7.3, and 7.4%.
The forecast for 2017 for most items were also degraded. In particular, from Brazil to the OECD now expect no growth and stagnation with zero growth of GDP (-1,8 percentage points). The Outlook for most developed countries has been reduced by 0.1–0.2 percentage points.