Oil and gas revenues of the budget of Russia in January fell by almost a third

Because of very low oil prices in the beginning of the year oil and gas revenues of the Russian budget in January fell by almost a third compared with January 2015, and the export duties on hydrocarbons brought the Treasury less than half (49%) from the previous year, reported the Ministry of Finance in the operational report on execution of the budget (has a copy).

Oil and gas budget revenues in January amounted to 371,1 bln rubles is 8% more cash plan (to 344.4 billion rubles), said in the report of the Ministry of Finance, which entered the state Duma. At the same time, the resulting amount is 29% less than oil and gas revenues for January 2015, noted in the report. Tax maneuver (increase in tax rates on oil and gas condensate) contributed to a significant increase in budget revenues from tax on mineral extraction (met) — by 21.5% in comparison with January of 2015. But the increased revenue from the mining tax could not compensate for losses from lower export prices of Urals crude oil: revenues from export duties on oil and gas in January 2016 amounted to only 49% of revenues a year ago.

In January 2016 the average price of Urals crude oil amounted to $28.8 per barrel — 38% lower than in January last year, and 44% lower than the average for the whole of 2015. “This extremely low value,” — said the Minister of economy Alexei Ulyukayev on the air “First channel” on February 14. The Ministry of economic development has a stress scenario with an average price of Urals crude oil at $25, but the speaker still considers it more realistic price of $40 per barrel in 2016. Close view is held by the Ministry of Finance, which aims to hold the fiscal deficit within 3% of GDP with an average price of $40, spoke earlier in February, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

Rates of export duties for January 2016 was calculated in November and December, when the price of Urals crude oil was at $36-39 per barrel, the Ministry of Finance is stipulated in the report. And reduced revenues from oil exports could be even greater if not for the decision to save for 2016 last year export tariffs (instead of their planned reduction), the Agency notes. Freeze export duties should bring the Treasury 200 billion rubles this year, but oil prices around $30 revenue would amount to only 50 billion rubles, reported Reuters on 10 February, citing unnamed Federal officials.

Overall, the budget revenues compared to January of 2015 decreased by 18% (235.9 billion rubles), while the budget for the first month of the year failed to comply with the surplus in 390,2 billion rubles the fact that the costs fell even more, by 54% (842 bln) compared to January 2015. The authorities had saved on public procurement, follows from the data of the Ministry: procurement of goods, works and services decreased by RUB 676 billion

Only the administrator, with revenues to the budget in January has increased, the Federal tax service, taxes collected 35% more than in January 2015. Income from the Federal customs service decreased by 37%, from other administrators at 61%, estimated by the Finance Ministry. Growing income tax service the Ministry of Finance explains the increase in revenue from VAT, mineral extraction tax and tobacco excise taxes and a sharp reduction of income and other administrators communicate with non-repayment of balances of subsidies and intergovernmental transfers to regions (the sum of no return, the Finance Ministry estimated at 110 billion roubles).

Export duties really came to the budget a little, this will continue, but be afraid, says the analyst of the Economic expert group (EEG) Alexandra Suslina. The reduction of fee income is due to not only the low price of oil, but the fact that the main burden on the oil industry shifted to the met, she said. With 2016 in the framework of the tax maneuver of the government to increase mineral extraction tax and export duties reduce, reminiscent of Suslin. But fees are not reduced, and the met still raised.

The increase in the price of oil to an acceptable level in 2016 EEG experts do not expect. “We expect that it will be about $35-37/bbl. in an average year,” says Suslina. In these circumstances, the authorities will have very soon “to attempt to fill the budget with something else,” she says. According to Susleni, filling the budget authorities will be achieved mainly through spending cuts and borrowing.

Freeze export tariffs at current prices “to big results did not”, said earlier to journalists the Deputy Minister of Finance Ilya Trunin. The Ministry of Finance will propose measures to offset the shortfall from oil revenue, he said. According to the Deputy Minister, “we need to determine the acceptable level of tax burden at any possible price level” of oil. “Because the rates and scale rates set so that when you pay $100 in taxes and duties seized in the budget about 80% of revenue, but at the price of $30 — much less, almost twice less, — said Trunin. If we believe this is fair, then it should remain unchecked. But if we do not believe this is fair or we believe it is fair to increase the burden on the oil industry, and other industries — to increase or decrease, it is necessary to take other decisions.” But what choice is ultimately made by the authorities, Trunin does not know.