Participants of the Business Breakfast, organized in the framework of the Krasnoyarsk economic forum, in the morning’s discussions sought to identify key principles of strategy of development of the Russian economy and to find a potential point for growth.
Speakers recognized the need to diversify the Russian economy, but, however, disagreed on whether to completely abandon hydrocarbon growth model.
The economic development Ministry believes the price of oil to $10 per barrel likely scenario
It is foolish to refuse
As noted by Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, the raw material can be the core of the Russian economy, but, according to the Vice Premier, should consider a larger weight in the strategy two other national resources – the land and its people. “The earth is the ability to provide himself and the world food and other resources, people are able to determine technological development,” said Deputy Prime Minister.
“They’re probably too stupid to abandon what is our natural wealth,” said Dvorkovich, speaking of the hydrocarbons.
Equally important, according to Deputy Prime Minister, is the preservation of Russia’s financial independence and self-sufficiency.
The model “died”
Dmitriy Belousov, head of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of the Center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting considers that the hydrocarbon growth model “died”.
According to him, the future due to several trends. The development of technology will lead not only to the development of new markets, but also to the closure of the old, indicates Belousov.
In particular, in the run up to 2030 the world economy expects a sharp compression of the fuel markets.
Russia should efficiently use available resources and to concentrate efforts not only on attracting foreign investors, but also on the effective management of projects, says Belousov. “We need to concentrate the dialogue between business and authorities and to define the scope of actions,” he said.
We can play the game
Deputy Chairman of Vnesheconombank Andrei Klepach is confident that Russia can’t get off the “oil needle” in terms of technology development. “We constantly underestimate, looking at all of the technological innovation, the fundamental role of hydrocarbons in the development of our economy,” he said.
However, according to him, in view of the serious reduction in gas prices Russia could become the world’s largest manufacturer and importer of the resource.
“I think in the gas market we are able to some extent to play the same game as Saudi Arabia. Competing with shale oil, it relies on the increased production and lower prices. Speaking of gas, we can also play the same role, because the possibilities for increasing gas production we have, but this is due to a serious reduction in the price of gas,” he said.
Krasnoyarsk economic forum 2016. February 19. Text translation
According to Klepach, the sanctions imposed against Russia have urged oil and gas companies to develop their technologies.
“We are seriously lagging behind in the technological sphere, we have the utilization of the same oil, 26-28%, depending on how you count, is lower than in the Soviet Union,” he added.
In turn, the General Director of RUSAL Vladislav Soloviev noted that Russia needs to decide what to do in terms of end of the commodities super cycle.
“You can continue to compete on cost, but it came to nothing lead, and we can manufacture products from commodities. This requires access to credit and infrastructure”, – he said.
According to him, the second important factor in the further development is environmentally friendly produced product.
Krasnoyarsk economic forum: the story of one of the largest regional sites
Reliance on people.
Sergey Kovalevsky, art Director of the Krasnoyarsk Museum center, at the end of a business Breakfast highlighted that there is a need not only for technological breakthrough initiatives, but also in the Humanities. There are three challenge in this direction: the development of space, inclusion in global history and community, acquisition of skills of solidarity.
Vyacheslav Kudashov, Dr. of philosophical Sciences, Professor, noted that it is impossible to survive without reliance on human capital. He noted the need to invest in education and health.
Krasnoyarsk economic forum is held under an informational support