The cause of the fall of the ruble to historic lows in 85,999 rubles per dollar, forcing the head of the Central Bank to cancel the trip to the world economic forum in Davos, began prior to the fall in oil prices, said in an interview with Reuters Elvira Nabiullina. No large-scale buying up the currency in the interest of any major player, no sharp reduction of volume of currency sales by exporters the Central Bank monitoring has not revealed.
“Most likely, the dynamics of the course to a certain extent reflected the delayed effect of the fall in oil prices in the previous days. A few days before that oil prices fell quite rapidly, and the ruble we have shown resistance,” — said Nabiullina.
CB head stressed that the regulator had not taken on 21 January any special measures that may affect the exchange rate, which towards evening went up again after the correction in oil prices. However, the situation on the currency market the Central Bank kept track of.
“Of course, we are at the moment looking for indicators of financial stability associated with the demand for cash currency, currency liquidity in General, the density of the foreign exchange market and so on. Risk at that time was not, therefore, refrained from entering the currency market with interventions,” — said Nabiullina.
The Chairman of the Bank of Russia has warned that sharp fluctuations of the ruble is possible in the future, as in the oil market remains high volatility. In General, however, the market rate of the ruble, according to estimates by the Central Bank is now close to being fundamentally sound, but because its volatility will gradually decline.
Nabiullina emphasized that the Russians are quietly responded to the second wave of the price fall in January 2016 and not rushed to exchange offices for currency, as it was in December 2014.
“I think it’s quite natural. All get used to a floating exchange rate. And companies and people are beginning to realize that the rate may move to one or the other side, you can win and lose”, — said the head of the Central Bank.
21 January 2016 the exchange rate of the dollar set a new historical record, rising for the first two hours of trading on the Moscow stock exchange almost on 5 roubles and reached RUB 85,999
Some of the interviewed experts then link the events with what one of the major players purposefully buying foreign currency, while exporters take a wait.
By the end of the day, the dollar retreated from record levels, falling to 82,63 rubles, and the next day amid a sharp growth of oil quotations fell by more than 3 rubles.