KRASNOYARSK, February 19. /Corr. Ksenia Aleynikova, Andrei Baskets, Alexey Bolshov/. Krasnoyarsk economic forum, the main theme of which was the stated Strategy 2030, on the first day revealed the urgent problems of the Russian economy and directions of its development – let, and on prospect up to 2030, but for the next few years.
Oreshkin: if the current oil prices, the budget deficit may exceed 4% of GDP
The plan received additional funding to support the economy can be a reserve of 120 billion rubles.
Dvorkovich: frost oil production will not affect its growth in Russia by 1.5% in 2016.
The tone of the discussions on the forum asked business Breakfast, organized by the key topic of which was the continued dependence of the Russian economy from commodity exports. However, not all participants saw this relationship negative.
“We constantly underestimate, looking at all of the technological innovation, the fundamental role of hydrocarbons in the development of our economy. We all say we are with this needle needs to get off. I don’t know about needles, even the pipes off, I think we can not”, – said the Deputy head of Vnesheconombank Andrei Klepach.
The theme was continued by Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, who, however, noted that the Russian economy there are two “whales” – the land and human resources.
Russia will help the investment and resettlement of Moscow
The theme of the Strategy-2030, the participants continued to discuss in the plenary. The speakers agreed that the main role in shaping strategy and driving growth of the economy should take over the state, providing inflow of investments into the country.
Growth recipe is the same, in fact, he was already named. The state should do what it says, what it promises, it creates trust. If you trust any investment, investment in the future. Without investment we cannot live neither this year nor next, nor next 15 years
Deputy Prime Minister
However, according to representatives of business, Strategy-2030 should not be an end in itself – much more important to find the causes of the crisis and ways out of it. In particular, the businessman Oleg Deripaska, who during his speech repeatedly disrupted the applause, proposed to focus on development of agriculture, housing construction, infrastructure and processing of raw materials. For the first time, those present responded with applause to the proposal of the businessman “not to pray on quotes” and be ready for an oil price of $18 per barrel and the dollar exchange rate is 100 rubles.
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Krasnoyarsk economic forum-2016
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The next time the audience applaud when the businessman mentioned problems in the judicial system. “The strategy must consider who, how and in what way it can influence the judicial system to protect private property. We talk about corruption, we speak about the inefficiency of public administration, but the entrepreneur, the citizen must be able to come to court and receive a fair decision”, – said Deripaska.
And quite unexpectedly there was his statement about the necessity of settlement of Moscow. According to him, each time, approaching Moscow, he thinks: “What are these people doing?”. Deripaska stressed that the overcrowding of Moscow – is a consequence of the commodity boom and the real problem for the Russian economy.
But for the national economy is characteristic not only of the problem, summed up in his concluding remarks, Deputy Prime Minister Dvorkovich, noting the role of the “Russian-women” in peace with warmth, food and knowledge.
“Russia, what she can do: can heat the world with their resources, can feed the world, but it may teach the world. This means that Russia is a woman, and Russia, being a woman, can make a difference. And such a strategy can be successful,” said Deputy Prime Minister.
Oil: “freezing” and “unfreezing”
Painful subject of resource dependence at the plenary session has not sounded. All the key statements on the level of oil prices and volumes of its extraction of Vice-Premier and other representatives of the financial authorities and business did behind the scenes.
Dvorkovich: the oil price will stop falling in the case of freezing the production
So, commenting on the possibility of agreement between Russia and OPEC the “freezing” of the level of oil production, Dvorkovich said that in this regard, does not expect strong falling of the prices.
After that the Deputy head of the Ministry of economic development Oleg Fomichev told reporters that the Agency considers unlikely a scenario in which the oil price can reach $10 per barrel, which had allegedly told representatives of oil business in the London IP Week forum.
As for production, Dvorkovich expressed confidence that the level of production of “black gold” in Russia in 2016, a hypothetical arrangement with the oil cartel will not be affected.
Thus the countries-oil producers are actively discussing the idea of “freezing” of oil production at the level of January of this year. To a greater or lesser extent with this initiative agree Russia and most countries of the OPEC, including one of the largest oil exporters – Saudi Arabia. Now all eyes riveted on oil to Iran, on whose position depends the stabilization of energy prices.
According to first Deputy Minister of energy of the Russian Federation of Teksler, Russia “freezing” is not terrible, as the agreement will commit the the January production level that is on average higher than 2015 assessment Arkady Dvorkovich, the agreement allows for the increase of oil production in Russia by 1.5%.
Another advantage to freeze oil production is the ability to “defrost” the number of Russian expensive oil projects that were stopped because of the inability to pay back, said Teksler.