Free resources from the national welfare Fund (NWF), which represent more than 3 trillion rubles, is for the banks to purposefully lend to the economy, experts say the economic faculty of Moscow state University, prepared the relevant report commissioned by the organization of the former head of Russian Railways Vladimir Yakunin “Dialogue of civilizations”. According to authors of the report, the investment of these funds in effective projects can raise economic growth by 0.5 percentage points a year for several years.
The report “on the strategic management of development of the Russian economy” Yakunin presented today. It was prepared by the economic policy research Center and the Department of macroeconomic regulation of the Economics faculty at Moscow state University under the direction of Andrei Klepach (former Deputy Minister of economic development).
In terms of sanctions and limited access of Russian banks to world capital markets is necessary to expand the resource base of the banking system by placing in banks FNB, proposed in the report. This should be linked “by targeting credit growth of the economy at least for the world’s leading banks with state participation and the state Corporation “Vnesheconombank”. The authors of the report estimate a credit crunch in the $30-40 billion, or 2% of GDP, which “corresponds to the amount of non NWF”.
If these funds will be invested in effective projects, the rate of growth of the Russian economy could grow by 0.4—0.5 percentage points per year in the medium term and in the long term, a full percentage point, according to the report.
As a source of “targeted” credit growth can be used directly deposits (loans) of the Bank of Russia, according to the authors of the report. The combination of such measures with “moderate” increase of the national debt, structural transformation and improving management efficiency in corporations with state participation are able to bring the economic growth to 4-5% a year, according to Yakunin and Klepach.
The NWF was originally conceived as a means to an end, which will go on payment of pensions to future generations. But in 2012, President Vladimir Putin asked the Federal Assembly to print the national welfare Fund on infrastructure projects. After that, for projects within the Russian quota of 40% of the volume of the Fund, which in 2014 was increased to 60%
Aggregate volume national welfare Fund on February 1, 2016 $71,15 billion, follows from the data of the Ministry of Finance (about to 5.35 trillion rubles, or 6.8% of GDP). Most of the Fund is placed in foreign currency on accounts in the Central Bank — about $44 billion at the end of January (it is actually available resources). The rest is placed on Vnesheconombank’s deposits are invested in preferred shares of banks (VTB, Gazprombank, Rosselkhozbank), in securities, connected with realization of infrastructure projects (their list is approved by the government).
To date, the government, as he wrote recently, has approved 12 projects with a total amount of 972 billion rubles, and last in line for money NWF managed to “SIBUR” Leonid Michelson and Gennady Timchenko Kirill Shamalov and; the company will receive funds for petrochemical complex Zapsibneftekhim.