Bloomberg interviewed 27 experts and only six of them believe that the likelihood of protests due to the downturn of the Russian economy is 50% or more. The average probability of such scenario, according to economists, is 30%.
According to the head of the study group on the growing economies in Toronto Dominion Bank Christian Maggio, the likelihood of political unrest “is more limited than in 2011, given the fact that Russia’s relations with neighbouring States deteriorated”. According to Maggio, this situation should make Russians more United and loyal to the government.
Agree with him the Hamburg Berenberg Bank economist wolf-Fabian Hungerland that the reaction to economic turmoil is more of apathy than revolution. “At the disposal of the Kremlin there are too many “goats of otpusheniya,” he says, referring to the fact that the Russian authorities can concentrate people’s attention on other events, such as conflicts in Ukraine and Syria.
Economist at Raiffeisen Bank Andreas Schwab eliminates the possibility of large-scale political protests, specifying that certain groups of the population from time to time can show discontent, and the appearance will become more frequent.
According to last poll “Levada center” held in late January, 39% of Russians would support the “United Russia” if the elections were held “in the near future Sunday” (with 22% undecided and 19% said that they would not go to the elections). According to another poll, also conducted “Levada-center”, 82% of Russians are satisfied with the work of Vladimir Putin. Thus the work of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev approve only 56% of respondents.
Last year the recession in the Russian economy amounted to 3.7%. Real incomes of Russians are falling for the second consecutive year in 2014 they decreased by 1%, in 2015 — 4%.
In December 2015, informed sources Bloomberg reported that the Kremlin is concerned about a possible loss by President Vladimir Putin on popular support. According to interlocutors of Agency, Putin several times discussed with his assistants the falling living standards of the Russian population. Bloomberg sources claim that the President relies on the fact that the Russians are willing to endure economic problems for the sake of stability.