In the event of a British exit from the EU the country will need about ten years to restore trade and economic relations with continental Europe. Over the years of “uncertainty” can suffer all leading sectors of the British economy: industry, agriculture and financial services. This is the conclusion in its report came a group of experts from the UK government.
Published in the morning of 29 February, the document was prepared by experts of the Cabinet Office (Cabinet Office) — the office of the Prime Minister David Cameron. This is the first government report on the possible consequences of the so-called Brexit. A referendum on the British exit from the EU must pass Thursday 23 June 2016.
Among the sectors most vulnerable to the rupture of relations with the EU, experts of the office referred to as the automotive, financial markets and investments. Serious pressure Brexit would have on the pound. Last week the Bank HSBC warned that in case of withdrawal from the EU, the British currency may in the short term to achieve parity with the Euro and drop the U.S. dollar to the lowest level since 1980-ies. Now for £ gives €1,27, which is the minimum since the autumn of 2014.
To assess the damage to the British economy, experts of the office did not take, but noted that trade with the European Union are directly or indirectly affected 12.6% of UK GDP. For example, from 1,23 million sold abroad in 2015 British cars more than half were sold in the EU.
In addition, remind the authors of the report, the EU is now home to over 2 million expats — British nationals. Exit from the EU can jeopardize their right to work, to pensions and medical services.
The prolonged farewell
The main argument of the office in favour of retaining EU membership — concerns about the timing of the release will be delayed. The authors of the report remind: the only legal way to execute this process is article 50 of the EC Treaty. On it from the notification of the European Council (the body which brings together the leaders of the EU countries) on the output and to full legal independence of the state from treaties, the EU should not be more than two years. In other words, in two years London will have to negotiate terms of exit and replace the pan-European acts of the new agreements.
However, these conditions, the authors of the report, a lot. In addition to the social protection of expats we are talking about General access to a database of drugs, about cross-border security and the right of English fishermen to conduct fishing in the territorial waters of European countries. In addition, London will have on a bilateral basis to extend dozens of international agreements in which the UK acts as a member country of the EU. The experts of the office have more than 50 such treaties.
For example, if Britain will leave the free trade zone, but will not negotiate any new agreement that the trade of the country with the continent will be carried out according to the WTO rules — and that means the introduction of a number of duties on the importation of products into Europe. For some goods (alcohol, tobacco, sugar) fees exceeds 20%. The price is great — only Scotch whisky exports to EU countries during the first half of 2015 was £4.3 billion (over $6 billion).
“Leaving the EU means a violation of many rights and obligations: access to the common market to the General policy on sanctions”, reads the report. Under article 50, the extension output process will require agreement on the remaining 27 countries of the EU, which will definitely use that to promote their own requirements, tightening even more. Finally, there will be a role that the case of the UK — a unique, case, and discussion of all the legal intricacies will take some time.
According to The Guardian, many politicians-conservatives, campaigning for a British exit from the European Union, reacted negatively to the release of the report, calling it “Project fear”. The currently ruling Conservative party split into supporters of an exit and supporters of preserving the country in the EU. One of the most prominent supporters of “Euro-skeptic” line is justice Minister Michael Gove. Prime Minister Cameron, by contrast, stands with Pro-European positions through mid-February agreement with Brussels.
Previously the Deputy Director of IMEMO Alexei Kuznetsov said that Cameron (who had himself raised the issue of Brexit three years ago) is only trying to score political points. His goal is to hold a referendum, but to achieve the conservation of the country within the EU, having by that time certain concessions from Brussels, he said. The report of the Office of the Cabinet may be one of the tools of Cameron in the fight for preservation as part of the EU, writes the Financial Times.