The Central Bank abandoned the optimistic scenario of the new forecast


Speaking to reporters in Shanghai, where these days there passes a meeting of Ministers of Finance and heads of Central banks of G-20 countries, Nabiullina said that her Department still does not understand the second scenario of monetary policy. According to her, now the Central Bank must clarify the hypotheses for oil price for the baseline and risk scenario. The latter option assumes the price of oil $ 25 per barrel, the Agency reports TASS.

On 12 February the first Deputy Chairman of Bank of Russia Dmitry Tulin has declared to journalists that the Bank of Russia may lay in an updated risk scenario for 2016 the price of oil at $25 per barrel. Baseline scenario the Central Bank is able to calculate based on the price of $35 per barrel, now is a stressful scenario

Earlier, the head of monetary policy Department of the Central Bank Igor Dmitriev said that the Bank of Russia sees no need to revise risk scenario. Answering the question of which values can drop the price of oil, Dmitriev said: “Such assessments are not. We assume that the price can be under the risk scenario and claimed below $35 per barrel, but no specific evaluation. For the purposes of the scenario there is no such need” (quoted by “Interfax”).

The parameters of the stress scenario of macroeconomic development the Central Bank first revealed in December 2015. “In our calculations for the risk scenario we expect oil to be around $35 per barrel. In this scenario the decline in GDP in 2016 will amount to 2-3%, inflation is about 7%,” — said the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina at a press conference following the meeting of the Board of Directors on 11 December 2015.