Mine “North” after what happened on the weekend of the accident may resume in 6 to 12 months, said the press service of the management of the mine company “Vorkutaugol” (part of “Severstal” Alexey Mordashov). “The chance to restore emergency mine “Northern” high, if you can isolate the damaged pipe section and displace the oxygen supply of liquid nitrogen,” — said the representative of “Vorkutaugol”. The timing of the restart of production will depend on the results of the aftermath of the accident.
“North” is the flagship mine of the holding company “Vorkutaugol” in the coking coal brand 2ZH — one of the best quality and demanded in the market. According to Severstal, “North” accounts for about 30% of the total production of coal of this brand. 2ZH grade coal is used in the charge (mixture of raw materials) for the production of steel. In 2015, the sale of “Vorkutaugol” was about 5.7 million tonnes of coking coal concentrate, 68% of this volume was delivered for the needs of “Severstal” (in 2014, 4.8 million tons and 77%, respectively).
Loss of “Severstal” from idle the mine, according to analyst IK “Aton” Andrey Lobazov, will amount to $30-35 million in calculating the company’s EBITDA. In 2015 the group’s EBITDA Severstal amounted to $2,096 billion, so losses from idle time of “North” can be 2-3% of the annual rate. Similar evaluation gives the analyst UK “Kapital” Vadim Bit-Avragim — $30-40 million on EBITDA and, accordingly, 2-3% of the projected figure for the current year.
Rehabilitation costs of the mine can be as high as $50 million, says Bit-Avragim. In his estimation, taking into account the losses from idle time to a total reduction in EBITDA of Severstal in 2016 may reach 8%. Lobazov the cost of restoring the mine to assess difficult — this amount will be known after the investigation and assessment of damage. The analyst said that it could be “tens of millions of dollars”. For comparison, the recovery of the Raspadskaya mine, where in 2010 also exploded the methane, it spent about $300 million.
Acute shortage of coal due to idle mines, Severstal, and yours, says Lobazov: the company can redirect to your own needs amount of raw material that Vorkutaugol sold to third-party customers.
The last major accident in the Russian coal industry occurred at the Raspadskaya coal mine (Kemerovo region). There also after a series of explosions has failed flagship mine. In the first days after the accident quotes Raspadskaya fell by about 25%.
GDR “Severstal” at the London stock exchange on Monday fell by 2.5%. Unlike Raspadskaya, Severstal lost more than an underlying asset, explains the relatively calm reaction of investors Vadim Bit-Avragim. However, he added, to the shareholders of the company may become negative possible reduction in the dividend payment for the year 2016.