Tuesday March 1, the U.S. will be pre-election of presidential candidates from the Republican and Democratic parties. Voting will take place in Virginia, Vermont, Texas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Arkansas, Alabama, Oklahoma and Tennessee. In addition, Democrats will hold primary elections in American Samoa, and the Republicans — in North Dakota, Alaska and Wyoming. Day when preliminaries are held in the greatest number of States, traditionally called “super Tuesday” — it is considered to be decisive in the struggle for the right candidates to represent the party in elections. In some States, elections will be held in the form of primaries (where voters put a tick opposite to a surname of the candidate), others in the form of Caucuses (meetings of party supporters, during which the winner is determined).
One of the key moments of the presidential race in both parties appear more and more clearly the favorites. The Democrats have Hillary Clinton after a vague beginning of the campaign caused his opponent Bernie Sanders defeats in Caucuses in Nevada and primaries in South Carolina. Republicans more likely the billionaire Donald trump.
In the primaries, voters of both parties to determine for whom to vote, the delegations from the States at party congresses in the selection of a presidential candidate this summer. For approval of candidate policy-Democrats need to enlist the support of 2383 delegates (Clinton now 544 Sanders — 85), the Republican — 1237 delegates (the leader of the race trump — 82 votes).
At the beginning of the Republican election campaign for candidacy of Donald trump, few taken seriously. The favorites of the Republican race was considered the ex-Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Senator from Florida, Marc Rubio and Senator from Texas Ted Cruz. Because of their eccentric and outrageous statements trump acted mainly as an object of ridicule. A billionaire who made his fortune in the real estate development business were proposed, for example, built on the border of Mexico and USA wall for $8 billion And after the terrorist attacks in Paris, trump came up with the idea to introduce a “General and complete” ban on entry of Muslims into the United States. For the statements trump has even been criticized by Pope Francis, who rebuked him that he behaves “unchristian”.
But in early February, held its first preliminary elections results stunned the Republican establishment is coming to Iowa to finish second in the other States trump began to beat their opponents with solid political experience. Now in the asset of trump winning the Caucuses in Nevada and primaries in new Hampshire and South Carolina.
Among Republican voters trump is now the undisputed leader. The February issues Winnipegthe University gave the Trump twice as many votes compared to his nearest rival Marco Rubio (39% vs. 19%). Cruz has almost as many votes as the Rubio. In all States where on Tuesday will be the primaries, trump is way ahead of rivals.
In support of trump has already made one of the Republican leaders – starring with race new Jersey Governor Chris Christie. “For Republicans now, it is important to nominate a candidate who can defeat Hillary Clinton. Trump is the only candidate not want to face Hillary and bill Clinton,” said Christie. According to The Washington Post, Christie supported trump, hoping to be nominated as Vice-President, if the billionaire will be nominated from the Republican party.
The January YouGov poll found that 20% of trump voters do not approve the abolition of slavery 150 years ago, 31 percent supporting his candidacy in South Carolina are in favour of a ban on entry into the country for gays and lesbians, and 70% want to see again on the legislative Assembly of the state flag of the Confederation.
“The Republican party itself created a trump, it’s something like “monster of Frankenstein”, which was born thanks to the party, she was fed and is now strong enough to destroy his Creator,” writes in a column for The Washington Post researcher at the Brookings Institution, Robert Kagan.
Despite the fact that many influential Republicans actively declare their support for Rubio and the unacceptability of trump’s candidacy, some of them admit that the issue with the applicant almost solved. As has declared on air of TV channel Fox, the former speaker of the house of representatives newt Gingrich, those who do not believe in the extension of trump, “live in a fantasy land”. According to Gingrich, trump can win over Cruz and Rubio even in their home States (Texas and Florida). Speaking about the reasons for the popularity of trump, the former speaker pointed to a beautiful image, which is the Trump for several years created the Fox (billionaire every Monday appeared in the program Fox and Friends, in your own column “Mondays with trump”).
As noted by The New York Times, Republicans have failed to agree on supporting a single candidate, which would become an alternative to the Trump. Personal ambitions prevailed over party interests. For example, influential members of the party asked another Republican candidate, Governor of Ohio John Kasica to withdraw his candidacy that would unite the party around Rubio. But following keysik ignored this call.
Influential Senator from South Carolina Lindsey Graham on Friday, February 26, stated that his party “crazy” by supporting trump. “I don’t think it can be stopped”, — said the publication of Real Clear Politics an unnamed high-ranking representative of the Republicans. GOP leaders were so confident that trump will lose, I didn’t think that they actually need to do anything, writes in a column for The Washington Post political analyst Dan in Drezna. “As far as the success of the trump obliged to ensure that those people who could stop it, instead, read analysis, from which it followed that he has no chance?”, — he asks.
Serious likelihood that trump will be the candidate of the Republicans, recognize even his closest rivals. “Certainly, if Donald will break through the “super Tuesday” wins everywhere with great advantage, and, probably, will not to be stopped,” Cruz said on the air CBS.
Clinton V. Sanders
The Democrats to the “super Tuesday” in the favorite status suitable former U.S. first lady and ex-Secretary of state Hillary Clinton, the only rival of which is the 74-year-old Senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders. Despite the fact that before the campaign, Clinton was considered the undisputed favorite, the first primaries were developed for it unsuccessfully. Sanders, who describes himself as a “democratic socialist”, bypassed Clinton in the primaries in new Hampshire and lost to her by only 0.3% on the Caucuses in Iowa. But Clinton bounced back convincingly in the next two stages of preliminary voting in Nevada and South Carolina.
In South Carolina the advantage Clinton had an overwhelming 73.5 percent against 26% in Sanders. The victory with the devastating account she provided black voters and women — former Secretary of state was supported by 79% and 86% of these groups respectively. The primary electorate Sanders was voters under 29 years of age.
Among the reasons supporting Clinton black population of The Washington Post calls a good memory of African-American voters about the presidency of bill Clinton, and Clinton promises to continue the policies of Barack Obama.
The support of black voters may be a deciding factor on the vote in “super Tuesday” — it will be held in the southern States where the African-American electorate is the dominant force. Realizing this, Clinton began his tour to States where the vote will take place, with Memphis (Tennessee), where the majority of the population is black.
Opinion polls conducted in late February, give unconditional superiority Clinton: in Texas its advantage over Sanders — 61% versus 37%, in Georgia — 63% versus 35% (the survey data YouGov and CBS) Tennessee 60 vs 34 (polling by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal).
Independent candidate Michael Bloomberg, former new York mayor and founder of Bloomberg, the electoral battles yet to come. The billionaire, whose fortune Forbes magazine estimates at $41.6 billion, announced his desire to run for the presidency in early February. His presidential campaign so he will start in March. In January, sources close to the businessman, said The New York Times that Bloomberg is willing to spend on the campaign of a billion dollars from personal funds.
Cases where an independent candidate received a significant share of votes in the elections, in 1992, businessman Ross Perot spent on election campaign to $60 million from his personal funds, received as a result 19% of the vote (elections were then won by bill Clinton).
The poll results leave Bloomberg’s hope for a repeat of a similar result: the polls, the WSJ/NBC and USA Today say that the former mayor of new York supports 16% of Americans.
At the same time, Bloomberg may be representative of the interests of those Americans who do not belong to the Democrats or to Republicans. In 2015, according to polls conducted by Gallup, 43% of Americans identified themselves as “independent” (26% identified themselves as Republicans, 30% Democrats). In the fall of 2015 60% of respondents Gallup, U.S. residents stated that the Democratic and Republican party act so badly that they would welcome the emergence of a third major party.
At the same time, according to observers and analysts, participation in Bloomberg’s elections could play into the hands of Republicans — the former mayor of new York can “win” more votes to Democrats than Republicans. This is, in particular, Fox Business said a former adviser to Hillary Clinton, mark Penn.