Russians ready for the new fall of the ruble by the end of spring


After three months the dollar will cost 84 rubles, and a year — 83, believe the respondents, organized by all-Russian center for public opinion research at the end of February. According to the Central Bank, the actual value of the exchange rate at the time of the survey was 77 rubles per dollar. Yesterday on the Moscow stock exchange the dollar/ruble closed at mark of 75.2.

Respondents were 1,600 people in 130 settlements. On the background of the actual growth of the dollar has formed the expectation of further devaluation in the coming months, the authors review the polls.

The dollar was worth RUB 84 and above on 21 January, when the price of Russian Urals oil dropped below $25 per barrel. But after that oil on the world market has increased, and with it the ruble (the correlation between ruble and oil, according to Bloomberg, is now about 77%). Today Brent oil is trading almost at $37/bbl. (as of 9:20 MSK).

The total interest in what happens to the dollar, slightly faded, marks VTSIOM. If in January that follow the dynamics of the course, reported by 63% of respondents, the results of the February survey, this proportion was only 56% (in December of last year, the exchange rate worried about 51% of respondents). Often such information is interested in younger population, 25-34 year-olds (63%) and residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg (67%).

More and more Russians decide to keep their savings in rubles: 57% of respondents opt for savings in the national currency. A year ago the figure was 50% in January of this year — 55%. “Among the population another “surge” in the dollar agiotage has not caused. In favor of this conclusion is demonstrated by the absence of changes in the structure of savings (the majority of continues to keep them in rubles), and very moderate level of attention to exchange rate changes”, — says a leading expert polls Oleg chernozub. The proportion of Russians who have no savings, during the year ranged from 37-43%, and the results of the latest survey was 39%.

In 2015, according to Rosstat, the share of income that went to pay for goods and services, was the lowest in five years. The Russians for the first time in 18 years, spent more than earned, follows from the data of Rosstat. Real wages of the population fell by 9.5%, and real disposable income by 4%.

To data Minekonomrazvitija, the savings rate in 2015 reached a five year high, amounting to 15.4 per cent. Monetary accumulation of Russians (excluding foreign currency deposits and cash in foreign currencies) increased by almost 15% and reached 23.9 trillion rubles.

Net demand for foreign currency in December 2015 (the latest data) amounted to $1 billion, which is 20% lower than in November, although traditionally in December saw an increase in net demand from Bank of Russia. “On the domestic market of cash foreign currency increased significantly the activity of the population. However, unlike previous years, when the population with higher intensity of purchased cash in foreign currency than sold it in December 2015 the intensity sale of a cash foreign currency at higher rates exceeded the rate of growth of demand”, — said in the review of the Central Bank.