The Russian ruble was the most undervalued currency among the currencies of developing countries of Europe the methodology for assessing the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate, BEER) Deutsche Bank, reports Bloomberg.
The BEER methodology developed in 1999 by British economists Peter Clark and Ronald MacDonald. It allows you to track discrepancies between the real exchange rate and the macroeconomic indicators of the country. “The ruble is one of the most undervalued currencies in our system for the evaluation of BEER”, — said analyst of the new York office of Deutsche Bank, Alan Ruskin at the client. After falling to a record low in January, the rouble has outperformed currencies of other developing countries the rate of growth and will continue to strengthen, according to a survey.
If the oil price stabilizes, the ruble may strengthen, agree strategist of emerging markets at Deutsche Bank in London Gautam Kalani. Analyst-specific forecast is not provided. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg suggests that by the end of 2016, the ruble will strengthen to 72 for $1.
Russia was the only developing countries that have increased international reserves from the beginning of 2016, says Bloomberg. International reserves of Russia have grown from January 1 to February 19 to $11.4 billion from $368 billion to $379,4 billion, according to data from the Bank of Russia.
The dollar at the auction of 21 January 2016 reached almost 86 rubles is the maximum value after the denomination of 1998. The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina in February in an interview with Reuters said that the regulator on 21 January did not take any special measures that may affect the course. The collapse of the ruble, the head of the Central Bank associated with the falling prices of oil. “A few days before that oil prices fell quite rapidly, and the ruble we have shown resistance,” — said Nabiullina.