Saying goodbye but not leaving
Ramzan Kadyrov will be appointed acting President of Chechnya until April 5 of this year, when his term expires. This was told three sources close to the presidential administration and the leadership of the Republic. And in September he will take part in the direct elections of the head of the Republic. All statements about Kadyrov’s imminent departure should not be taken seriously, say interlocutors .
The representative of Chechnya in the Federation Council Ziad Sabsabi confirms that recent statements by Kadyrov does not mean his refusal to go for a new term. “I’m terrible in these words not see, lately the situation has not changed,” said Sabsabi.
Recently, Kadyrov has repeatedly spoken to the media about his political future. In an interview with NTV television on 27 February, he suggested that the time had come to leave the post of head of Chechnya. “Now that I didn’t use my name against my people, I think that we need state leadership to find another person,” he said. In an interview with Interfax on 2 March, Kadyrov said that in the matter regarding his re-election will comply with the decision of the President. “Any decision made by the President of Russia Vladimir Putin. I grunt, say, “Yes!” — he stressed.
Kadyrov is a strong politician, he’s satisfied with Federal guidance and authority in the region, said a Federal official familiar with the debate on the future leadership of Chechnya. Loud statements of Kadyrov, about his possible departure as head of the Republic should not be given importance, he said. That pereselilsya Kadyrov for a new term by direct vote, the person no doubt.
“Just all this should be accompanied by persuasion to remain”, — the interlocutor close to the Kremlin.”At different times about [the desire to go to another job] said all strong regional leaders. Talked about this and the ex-President of Tatarstan Mintimer Shaimiev, and ex-mayor of Moscow Yuri Luzhkov. Kadyrov in this respect is no different” — like the source.
In the Kremlin, commenting on the recent statements of Kadyrov, called premature discussion of its further fate on this post and called to wait for the completion of its mandate. “We need to wait for the deadline, and accordingly, the President of Russia or offers, or not offer, several ways individuals. Therefore, in this case also need to wait,” said the President’s press Secretary Dmitry Peskov.
Soon Kadyrov had to be held a telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin, in which everything is determined, said Sabsabi. The Senator recalled that the President recently publicly praised the work of the President and people who work in his team Kadyrov.
Operational comment about soon meeting with Kadyrov and his possible assignment as acting head of the region the representative of the Kremlin could not be obtained.
Method of re-election
Kadyrov will be elected in direct elections is spelled out in the Constitution, only the North Caucasus regions, where the mayor is elected not by the Parliament.
Press Secretary of the head of Chechnya, Alvi Karimov refused to comment on Kadyrov’s intentions, but confirmed that in Chechnya will be held direct elections. “At the initiative of Kadyrov, it was decided to hold the elections by popular vote”, — he said. A source close to the Kadyrov in conversation with has underlined that “firmly convinced that the Kremlin approve the Constitution of the Republic and do not specify where, to whom and how to hold elections”.
In recent years the issue of election of the head of region was discussed at the Federal level, says a source close to the Kremlin, confirms and participated in the discussion of a Federal official. According to them, there were doubts that Chechnya should make such an exception.
“The problem is that the rule of indirect elections of heads of republics was originally intended for the entire North Caucasus, and just, explains one of the interlocutors . — If Chechnya is an exception, it is unclear how to explain to other Caucasian leaders why they are not elected directly”. A separate problem is the Sevastopol, the head of which is also directly elected, but where part of the elite advocates for direct election, said a source .
But in the end, the Federal center did not insist on the rejection of direct elections in Chechnya. “Chechnya is a mono-national region, in contrast to, for example, Dagestan. There are direct elections could lead to a split. In Chechnya the problem”, explains a Federal official.
“It is important Kadyrov to be elected directly, and demonstrate that it supports an absolute majority. The Federal center had questions about this, but the point of view Kadyrov won,” says a source close to the leadership of “United Russia”.
The source in regional Parliament has confirmed that talks on the abolition of the direct election amendment in Parliament. The amendment to the Charter adopted in may 2015 and no one is going to cancel it, he added.
Out of competition
Powers on a post of the head of the Republic Kadyrov will expire on 5 April 2016, after five years from the date of his inauguration.
The electoral law in Chechnya may change up to the date of election, said election lawyer Tatyana Lushnikova. In this situation, provided that in the Republic of legislatively approved direct elections, the President will appoint Kadyrov as the acting head of the region before the single voting day on September 18, elections will be officially announced in three months. From this moment to change the election procedure will be impossible.
According to the Senator Sabsabi, Kadyrov will stand from “United Russia” and will have to collect signatures of municipal deputies. “All deputies will be ready to give signature for Ramzan Kadyrov,” — said the Senator. Who could be alternative candidates for the post of the head of Chechnya, Sabsabi difficult to say. However, according to him, it doesn’t matter because “no one has a chance to win Kadyrov”. If not 100%, about 98% of the population supports the head of the Republic in the case of his decision to stand will vote for him, said the Senator.
If Kadyrov will stand, re-elected, because he has a great reputation and the population it supports, I’m sure the state Duma Deputy from Chechnya, Khozh Magomed Vakhayev. “To leave Kadyrov’s policy sooner, as the years of his young and he is full of strength,” he said.
In the November ranking of survival of governors of the Fund “Petersburg policy” and communication holding “Minchenko Consulting” Kadyrov has four points out of five. Among the advantages the authors of the rating noted the status of the political figures at the Federal level, control over the situation in the region, the significance for the Federal center of stability in the Caucasus in the Syrian campaign. Perhaps strengthening the position of Kadyrov in the context of Russia’s involvement in the war in Syria, according to the rating. Among the disadvantages Kadyrov indicated a rise of conflicts with Federal power structures, the resonant increase in the number of incidents and tensions with neighboring regions. Weakness Kadyrov rating authors called it vulnerability to external criticism.