MOSCOW, March 3. The Ministry of economic development (MED) of the Russian Federation has calculated preliminary baseline conditions for the socio-economic development of Russia for 2016 2017-2019, and that office will present to the government by April. About it writes on Thursday the newspaper “Vedomosti” with reference to calculations of the Ministry.
Media: the Ministry of Finance predicts 15 years of stagnation of the Russian economy in the absence of reforms
According to the guidelines of the Ministry of economic development, the price of oil four years will remain under $50 per barrel. In the base case average price in 2016 is $35 per bbl., in the next three years – $40, $45 and $45 per barrel. respectively. In a conservative embodiment, oil is cheaper than the base $10. Optimistic (target) option is the same as basic.
“This is not a forecast, and first estimations. Most likely, in the final oil price will be above – trend at $40 per barrel. Now the Ministry of economic development must receive feedback from other ministries and agencies, including the proposed terms, and to reduce the overall prognosis,” write “Vedomosti” with reference to the representative of the Ministry of economic development.
Economic development also implies the preservation of sanctions against Russia and retaliatory retaliatory sanctions until the beginning of 2020 Limited access to capital markets and will reduce the outflow of capital – from $35 billion in 2016 to $15 billion in 2019.
As the Agency expects, the budget continues the savings on social costs. Pensions, like in 2016, will be indexed once a year on the inflation target to 4%. However, by estimations the MAYOR, this goal will not be attained in 2017, as expected by the Central Bank nor even in 2019 By the end of this year inflation will decrease to 7.7%, and the year after to 6.2% by the end of 2018 to 5.5% and remain at this level by the end of 2019 This means in real terms for 2016-2019 pension will be reduced by about 10%.
In addition, it is reported that the value of the salaries of teachers, doctors, professors and other categories of public sector employees, which by decree of the President rapidly increased wages, would depend on the situation on the labour market. The Agency assumes that the nominal wages of these categories of workers will not decline.
The indexation of the salaries of other state employees, including civil servants, frozen until the end of 2019 with an annual reduction by 5%. Similarly, for all four years will be authorized and funded part of the pension.
Medvedev has signed the action plan in the economy for 2016