Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev gave the course of the program “Economics of growth”, which was proposed by the Stolypin club, and the business Ombudsman Boris Titov took as the basis of the election program of the party “Right cause”. The corresponding order is directed to the Premier, Minister for open government Mikhail Abyzov (): it must ensure the “coordination and participation of the interested Federal Executive authorities in the establishment and organization of the inter-departmental working group”, which will be involved in the project. Dmitry Medvedev supported the need to work on this document, confirmed by the press Secretary, Natalya Timakova.
Titov said earlier that the Prime Minister took the presentation of “Economic growth” with “great interest” when you met her in January.
At the end of January Boris Titov has sent Dmitry Medvedev a letter with the proposed list of working group participants — representatives of the analytical center under the government of the Russian Federation, members of the Presidium of the Stolypin club, representatives of expert community and public authorities — “at the level not below the Deputy head”. Among them — the Deputy Minister of industry Gleb Nikitin, Deputy Minister of Finance Ilya Trunin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Aeroflot Kirill Androsov, the first rector of higher school of Economics Lev Yakobson, Director of the program “Economic politics” of the Moscow Carnegie center Andrey Movchan and others.
“The working group will be complemented with the suggestions of the Expert Council of the government and the interested Federal bodies of Executive power, which has already sent corresponding letters. Tentatively, the working group will be formed within two weeks”, — said Mikhail Abyzov. It is planned that the concept of the program will be finalized within a month or two, the Minister said, and added that while the planned order fourteen working group meetings.
“It is planned for the nearest calendar month, the group will agree on the concept of the state program “Economics of growth” on the basis presented to the Prime Minister”, — said the head of the Expert center under the Ombudsman under the RF President on protection of entrepreneurs ‘ rights Anastasia Alekhnovich. According to her, the group will be headed by Boris Titov, Konstantin Noskov, the head of the analytical center for the government. Hosting a series of meetings: on key decisions, sources of growth, financing and management reforms, says the multiplex. The task is to agree on objectives, key performance indicators and approve a consolidated list of activities for each of the blocks concept.
The controversial program
Most controversial provisions in the “Economy of growth”, which were mentioned in the October report of the Stolypin club, dedicated to the abandonment of inflation targeting. According to the authors, the Central Bank must switch to targeting GDP — the fight against inflation through economic growth, as they call it. They note that in Russia the monetary aggregate M2 (cash in circulation, demand deposits and time deposits) accounts for 45% of GDP — against 200% in China, for example. This explains the need for and easy availability of quantitative easing (QE) — “advancing economic growth” the mechanism of monetary emission, as they called it President’s adviser Sergei Glazyev is one of the authors of the report. The Central Bank can print on 1.5 trillion annually within five years — provided that the money goes to promote investment in the real sector. The authors suggest that the emission in this form will not aggravate inflation. “The issue of inflation at all fictional in our country, it is absolutely misinterpreted,” persuaded Boris Titov in an interview last month.
In addition to the emission mechanism out of the crisis it is proposed to use the reform of the tax system. Among the possible measures at the first stage of this process refers to tax credit on 25% of the cost of equipment purchased (VAT, income tax and/or tax on property and land), accelerated depreciation of equipment of domestic production, the regressive scale of social insurance payments depending on the level of labor productivity, the output from the taxation of all R & d expenditures. Further, the authors propose to reduce taxes on production by reducing insurance payments, income tax, VAT. But needs to be increased consumption taxes and resource rents.
Two ideas of the report — maintaining low against a basket of currencies of major trading partners real effective exchange rate of the ruble and exporters of transfer taxes to the budget in foreign currency to avoid fluctuations in the tax periods. Finally, the report was about the introduction to business (except importers) tax on purchase of foreign currency (this idea back in September 2015 were quoted Glazyev). At the same time they planned to introduce a tax on loans in foreign currency and the hard limit for open currency positions of banks and foreign currency deposits to the Deposit insurance system. These measures the authors of the report called “separate elements “soft” currency regulation”.
The idea of a transactions tax on currency exchanges in the September 2015 criticized Andrei Movchan, which Titov sees in the composition of the working group on the improvement of the program. “The tax on the conversion will add to the cost of the already weak economy, will increase the cost of virtually all goods (our production uses a substantial part of foreign raw materials and components) and will reduce the consumption of calling due to this new round of decline”, he wrote in a column on the website of the Carnegie Center.
Finally, the authors propose to transform a natural monopoly into a market infrastructure company, to limit indexation of tariffs for the next three to four years, to bet on the project “new industrialization” — import substitution in agriculture, automotive and high-tech machinery, building materials, export of products of military-industrial complex, chemical, deep processing of raw materials. It is also necessary to improve the housing and infrastructure projects and competition. These measures will accelerate other sectors in the economy and increase economic growth to 10% per year, followed from the report of the Stolypin club.
Andrei Movchan said that he had not reported the establishment of this working group. “Stolypin club, there were a lot of reasonable proposals. Another thing is that they were on top of thickly poured idiocy about the issue — and it’s all spoiled. If it is clean and emission, for example, to make the issue of reducing risks and improving legislation, then everything else we can talk”, — says Movchan.
The issue issue remains on the agenda, says Anastasia Alekhnovich. The Stolypin club in the hope that the working group will involve representatives of the Central Bank. “There is a common goal. At the moment we can still provide the various industries with available borrowings long — term, at normal rates. The way we suggested, as many countries do, to hold the target emission for a specific industrial projects to stimulate economic growth. Will have the opportunity to discuss and to adjust,” she says.