The basic condition for the forecast is the price of oil, which, according to the officials, the MAYOR, will remain under $50/bbl., according to the newspaper “Vedomosti”.
“This is not a forecast, but just some terms for discussion”, — quotes the edition of the position of the Federal official. The Finance Ministry has already calculated the budget when oil price of $25 and $30, and $40/bbl., told another Federal official. “This is not a forecast, but first estimations,” — said “Vedomosti” representative of the Ministry of economic development. According to him, in the final document oil price may be higher and reach $40/bbl.
The document “Basic hypotheses predict” implies the growth of the global economy by developed countries for maintaining sanctions against Russia and retaliatory retaliatory sanctions until the beginning of 2020.
In addition, the officials believe that the budget will continue the savings on social costs. Pensions will be indexed once a year on the inflation target to 4%, the achievement of which the officials, however, do not expect to 2019. The MAYOR the figures mean in real terms for 2016-2019 pension will be reduced by about 10%.
The new document will include freezing the indexation of salaries of state employees until the end of 2019. Also four years will be frozen funded part of the pension. According to forecasts of Ministry of economic development, expenditure on health, culture and education will be maintained in relation to GDP at its present level, however in real terms they are still waiting for the decline.
While the Russian economy is still “uncertain balancing on the spot”, said in February the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev. “As the cyclists who would move first. There’s even a term in Cycling — surplas,” he compared.
Updated the forecast of socio-economic development of Russia for 2016 assumes a reduction in GDP by 0.8%, the average annual rate of 68,2 dollar RUB per USD, the price of Urals oil — $40. Inflation should reach 8.5%, and capital outflow will amount to $50 billion, reported the newspaper “Vedomosti” with reference to the document.