MOSCOW, March 12. The times of “cold peace” in relations between Russia and the USA can take many years, predicts academician Andrei Kokoshin and doctor of political Sciences Alexander Panov.
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They released the book “Macro-structural changes in the global policy until 2030”, which explores key trends in patterns of world politics, the evolution of the role of its “centers of power”.
Kokoshin, who previously held the posts of first Deputy defense Minister and security Council Secretary, is now the Dean of the faculty of world politics of Moscow state University; Panov, who served as Deputy Minister of foreign Affairs and the Ambassador of Russia in three States, is a senior research fellow of the same faculty.
Cold war, but cold peace will be a protracted
Trained in the work they are trying to determine the contours of the future system of international relations, focusing on U.S., EU countries, China, India, Japan, their relations with Russia. “For the near term is not viewed the possibility of recurrence of the cold war (USA and Russia), as was the case in the relations between the USSR and the USA”. However, write the author and Panov, Washington, with high probability it will continue the policy of “containment” towards Russia. “As a result, the period of “cold peace” can be quite long, stretching for many years,” according to experts.
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The authors also conclude that “the idea of a universal and large-scale de-sovereignization, advanced and promoted by many leaders of Western countries, do not meet modern realities”. In the opinion Kokoshin and Panov, “to a considerable extent these ideas are intended to serve certain political tool for American political and business elites and the elites of some Western countries – U.S. allies in NATO.”
Experts believe that the prospect of creating any significant own unified armed forces of the European Union seem unrealistic, and suggest that you “take into account the fact that there is enough negative attitude to American “national security establishment”.
The centre of gravity of global politics is shifting
The book presents lots of data and evaluations, showing a significant increase in the values in the current and future global economy and politics of many Asian countries, the displacement of the “center of gravity” to the Asia-Pacific region.
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According to Kokoshin and Panov, “military power of the PRC is likely to be such that will be able to provide to China in the next 10-15 years, the maintenance of internal stability; to demonstrate the possibility, under certain conditions, to provide for the use of military force in relation to the issue of Taiwan; the provision of power to impact on the number of neighbors with which China has territorial disputed; ensuring a reliable nuclear deterrent against the United States as potentially the main antagonist of the PRC in the world”. “In the Chinese national mentality combines a high degree of pragmatism with a deep memory of national trauma inflicted during certain moments in the past to the Chinese people, the Chinese state with its more than three thousand years of almost uninterrupted history”, – explained the author and Panov.
Analyzing Japan’s policy, they conclude that “the relationship of Japan with Russia have independent value, according to the national interests of the country and contribute to creating a favourable environment for finding solutions of problems of a peace Treaty”.
Assessing the place of India in the world politics, Kokoshin and Panov noted the growing weight and influence of this Asian giant, mapping, including the possibilities and achievements of this country with what has and may occur in China. In particular, the authors write that in India there is no “international financial centers, like the Chinese Hong Kong and Shanghai”, which India has significant problems with infrastructure development – roads, ports, Railways, etc. “Industry, technology, India will not develop till the same wide range, as is the case in China”, according to Russian political analysts.
Identify trends for two decades
The authors believe that “the solution to the global challenges facing the international community, can effectively be realized only through multilateral and bilateral cooperation of the various States, although in the framework of various international organizations and forums”.
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Kokoshin and Panov in this call not to exaggerate the “degree of consolidation” of the countries in the group BRICS (Russia, Brazil, China, South Africa) “due to their different geographical location, involvement in different regional centrosome configuration”.
In an interview with the author said that the book was “fairly long time”. He explained to her the appearance of a “gigantic changes have occurred in world politics and the global economy, which need to be analysed, to identify trends that will shape global politics over the next two decades”.
Kokoshin believes that the work is intended to “fairly wide circle of geared-up readers”, and expects that it will be used in the educational process in universities. “I hope the book will be of interest to public authorities, copies will be sent, for example, in the foreign Ministry, the security Council, the Department of defense and other agencies”, – said the academician.