Tuesday, March 15, supporters of the Republican party (often referred to as “the party of the elephants” because of the symbol of the red elephant) will go to the polls once in five major us States: Illinois, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida.
At this stage of the primaries (pre-voting, during which the party determines which candidate to nominate to the elections) the Republican majority is testing a new strategy: it rejected the idea to oppose Trump (the most popular now a Republican, which does not approve of party leaders) of a single candidate, competition for him will be several other Republicans — they are the loyal States.
The party Charter allows to determine the main opponent just before the final forum in July. And whoever wins on this forum, will compete in a real election with Hillary Clinton: her nomination from the Democrats, almost no one doubts.
The Invasion Of Trump
Trump has entered the race last summer, now he has all chances to become a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination: “super Tuesday”, March 1, billionaire, star of the reality show and Twitter won seven of the 11 States where the primaries were held. For Republicans it has become a bombshell in the next month of racing left its former leaders, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, new Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Senator from Kentucky Rand Paul.
Trump has fallen out with the leadership of the Republican party, saying that he hates the corrupt Washington politicians, and showed the top politically incorrect, promising to ban entry of Muslims in the U.S., and on the way Mexicans — he called them “tyrants” — to build along the entire border wall. Throughout the campaign the media was told his insults and attacks on all journalists, women activists of the African-American movement, gays, immigrants, and even for a veteran of the Vietnam war, the Patriarch of the American policy of John McCain — because he was captured. “He’s not a war hero — just because he was captured. I like the ones who captured misses,” explained trump.
But voters like trump, the study found American Workers Union: for biznesmena massively willing to vote for “blue collars” — those who previously supported Democrats. Trump spoke about the problems and dissatisfaction which is felt and which they say is simple hard-working Americans, analysts say. He disagreed with the reduction of jobs in industry, the delocalization of production facilities, promises to review all free trade agreements and — if you become President, to punish the entrepreneurs who dare to take their businesses abroad.
“[Republicans] always there was the campaign winks to address poor and white, those who are offended enough to vote, following the race,” said live one of the most popular American TV presenters bill Mar. If you imagine the Republican party as a house, the racists long ago had been given a room, said Mar, and now they’ve taken over the house, so “simple Republicans are afraid to go into the kitchen at night to eat”.
Now before the “traditional” Republicans are challenged to win your house back. Some polls give other members of the Republican race — senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio and former Governor of Ohio John Casico is a good chance of winning over Clinton in the decisive battle.
Until the beginning of March, the Republican establishment was betting on consolidation among the opponents of the trump — at the beginning of the race the most promising rival billionaire seemed Bush, which brought in its electoral Fund by the beginning of the season primaries more other candidates. Then, after his withdrawal from the race, in this role claimed by Rubio. But winning trump in such diverse States as Massachusetts liberal and conservative Arkansas, showed that Republicans will be hard for the rest to complete the primaries is the time to create a second such a candidate.
The other day, Rubio, clearly tired many days of the campaign, burst: although the Clinton candidacy and he would be “worst” for the country, “every day [he] harder” to get used to the idea of support trump if he gets the winner of the Republican race. “It came down to this — the Treaty Congress or President Hillary Clinton” — ironically the author of The Washington Post Kathleen Parker.
The basic calculation of the Republicans now is possible to dilute the percentage of delegates supporting trump at the final party Congress in July in Cleveland. For automatic victory at this Congress Trump, it helps to enlist the support of 2472 1237 delegates-Republicans.
According to the results of the primaries each state sends to Congress his delegation — often she is obliged to vote for the winner in the state of the candidate. After the last primaries, held March 12, trump has collected 464 votes, Cruz — 372, Rubio — 166, still 63 votes went to Casico.
If Rubio wins the primaries in Florida (99 delegates), which he represents in the Senate, and following keysik will leave his native Ohio (66 delegates), it will reduce the chances of their rival to get the unconditional majority. In both States, the winner of the vote gets all the delegates ‘ votes, Rubio has called on his supporters in Ohio to support Kasica.
The Treaty Congress
Win these outsiders opens the way to a Treaty Congress — in the absence of the majority of one of your opponents delegates have the opportunity to freely vote for candidates. Last time this happened more than half a century ago, in 1952.
This outcome is also emphasized in the party presidential race of 2012 MITT Romney last week and he joined the fight with trump announcing that this candidate we have to stop at least for the love of America. In the Treaty of the Congress candidate from the Republicans could become and Romney — then the current participants in the primaries can encourage supporting their delegates to vote for him.
“We are already in the undeveloped area, said Bloomberg, one of the leaders of the election headquarters of Kasika John Sununu. — All more or less understand that we will have open voting”.
Now all the candidates running, including trump, will plunge into the analysis of legal procedures: the Republican party has no Central structure, and, although at the national level, she has the party Statute, the rules of selecting delegates vary from state to state. So, in 44 States delegation to the national Convention shall be approved by the Congress of the party at the state level or by the Executive Committee of the party organization of the state, and in other 6 the composition of the delegation is determined by the nominee who received the most votes in the primaries.
So, according to the rules of the Alabama all 36 delegates who will represent the Congress party, are obliged to vote for him anyway, but for example in Georgia 40 delegates, on which it expects will be exempt from the obligation to support him after the first ballot if he did not reveal the winner.
In the 1920s at one of the party congresses took more than 100 rounds of voting because the party could not decide on a candidate. “If the nominee is not determined in the first round, all hell breaks loose” — shares his fears with the publication of Vox Elaine Kamarck, author of “the Politics of primaries: all you need to know about how America should nominate candidates for President”.