Anniversary of Crimea: the Peninsula becomes part of the Russian economy

Two years ago, March 16, on the territory which was part of Ukraine Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol held a referendum on the status of the Peninsula. According to its organizers, more than 95% of the inhabitants of both regions voted for joining Russia. Every other day instead of regions of Ukraine was proclaimed an independent Republic of Crimea, a day later it became part of Russia — as two regions, the same Republic and the Federal city of Sevastopol.

Record inflation

The integration of Crimea into the Russian economy two million of its inhabitants felt on your own wallet: since its accession to Russia, the cumulative inflation has exceeded 80%, follows from materials Cristata. If in 2013 the inflation rate in the Peninsula was estimated only 0.5% in 2014, according to the Ministry of economy of Crimea, the prices in the country increased by 43% (and food — 53%), in 2015 — by 28% (and 23% for food). Particularly strong in the Republic of Crimea in 2015 prices rose on alcohol and tobacco — almost 40%.

According to the monitoring of the Russian Ministry of economic development of the Crimean Federal district (including Moscow) inflation sets a record in Russia: in 2015 – 26,4%, while in other regions the price increase ranged from 10.3% to 17.5%.

On the one hand, such high inflation rates are explained by low base effect, said the Deputy Director public Finance group S&P Karen Vartapetov: Ukrainian price level was much lower. On the other hand, when the Crimea became part of the Russian budget system, on the Peninsula increased wages and benefits — this in itself leads to an increase in inflation, the expert explains.

Indeed, if in December 2013, before accession, the average nominal wage on the Peninsula was 3148 UAH (Crystal), or approximately 12.6 thousand rubles at the average rate of the month in December of 2014 she was already 21,6 thousand rubles — that is, increased 1.7 times. And in December 2015 the average salary reached 30.2 thousand roubles — on 40% from the previous year.

Business and the Crimea

For two years Western sanctions related to the Crimea, renewed automatically. Because of the threat to be under sanctions, major Russian companies into the Crimea almost there — especially companies who have something to lose in international markets. In the summer of 2014 on the Peninsula has stopped working refueling LUKOIL and Rosneft, and later of Simferopol airport left “Gazpromneft-Aero”, a major player in the market of aviation fuel. Loukoster Aeroflot “Dobrolet” after the annexation of Crimea began to carry tourists to the Peninsula, but fell under the EU sanctions. Created by him “Victory” in Crimea does not fly.

Beneficiaries from joining a little and they are associated mainly with gospodarzami. By 2020 the economy of the Crimea will receive 708 billion rubles from the budget. The main purpose of “Crimean” target program is the integration of the region in economic space of Russia, provision of transport accessibility, the elimination of infrastructure limitations. The major project was the bridge across the Kerch Strait at 228,3 billion rubles, without competition received “stroygazmontazh” billionaire Arkady Rotenberg. Concrete developments of value to 47.3 billion rubles builds a subsidiary company of the state of FGC.

In the banking market in the Crimea has records of the Russian national commercial Bank (owned by the government) — in two years it grew more than 3000%. To the Crimea it was a small Bank with one office in Moscow, now he’s in Crimea, more than 240 offices and operas. From spring 2015, he has grown more than twice: assets on February 1, 2016 exceeded 64 billion rubles (last year was 28.9 billion, and prior to joining the Crimea 1.9 billion). Managing Director on Bank ratings RAEX Stanislav Volkov says that this increase is associated with the low base effect, and a significant portion of retail loans were issued to customers receiving pension on the card RNCB

Major Russian retailers for two years did not come to the Crimea. The four major public players (Magnit, X5 Retail Group, Dixy and Lenta) is not considering the region as a potential for development, told representatives of the companies. “In Crimea there are a few problems. There live two million quite poor by Russian standards of the people. They switched to rubles hryvnia, and you have no idea how products are cheaper there than here. We still don’t get their products in their price,” — said in the autumn of 2014 in an interview with “Snob” the founder “the Magnet” Sergey Galitsky. — When the market formed and the political situation calms down, we should probably go”.

In the Crimean campaign hopes to earn the tourism sector — some tour operators (for example, Tez Tour, TUI “Natalie tours”) after the termination of a Charter air links with Turkey have already announced the release to market of domestic tourism. It is primarily on the black sea coast of Krasnodar region, said in an interview in January, co-owner Tez Tour Alexander Burtin, however, clarified that the company is considering and the opportunity to work in Crimea.

The first tourist season in “annexed” the Crimea was a failure: the number of tourists to the Peninsula fell 5.8 million tourists and 3.8 million tourists, primarily due to the reduction in the number of tourists from Ukraine. In 2015, according to the Ministry of resorts and tourism of the Republic of Crimea, the growth rate was 21% — on the Peninsula rested almost 4.6 million tourists. Thus, by the end of 2016 the number of tourists only get close to the target, which was the case in Ukraine.

Not to discuss the topic

In mid-March, the new European Commissioner for foreign Affairs and security policy Federica Mogherini has identified five principles of EU’s policy towards Russia, in General summary of the summit on the fate of the Peninsula there are no words. Just remembering the anniversary of the Crimean crisis, Mogherini said “about General firm policy of non-recognition of the annexation of the Crimea”.

According to the Russian expert, head of the Department of political studies IMEMO RAS Nadezhda Arbatova, the EU recognizes that, to date, to raise the issue of Crimea at the very least counterproductive. “This is a Prime example of the kind of pending conflict that go by the wayside, but not disappear from the agenda, — said Arbatov. — The EU is trying not to discuss the topic of Crimea, because, first complete Ukrainian conflict, the creeping war in the country.”

However, the Peninsula was reopened to Western diplomats. For the second year in structure of Russia the Crimea had been visited by representatives of respectable power — down to supporters of former French President Nicolas Sarkozy from among the legislators. Great success, in Moscow consider a visit to the Peninsula in January of mission fact-finding of the Council of Europe, headed by Swiss diplomat Gerard Studman. In March, he shall submit to the Secretary General Jagland Torbjorn the results of the analysis according to the results of his trip. By late spring they should be made public, said the official representative of the Council of Europe Tatiana Baeva.

Of Tatiana aleshkino, Svetlana Bocharova, Oleg Makarov