The active position of Russia on Ukrainian and Syrian conflicts is a harbinger of a new cold war, analysts of the Economist Intelligence Unit. In the next review of the global risks for the Russian factor set to the second highest risk after the economic crisis in China.
The EIU notes that the aggravation of relations with NATO member Turkey in November shot down a Russian military aircraft, and support for separatists in Ukraine, given Russia’s relations with the West to their lowest level since the cold war. In the forecast, which analysts believe is highly likely, says that the increasing complexity of global geopolitics may prevent the implementation of other tasks, such as the fight against Islamic extremism and global warming, and always has the potential to exacerbate.
The increase of NATO forces in Eastern Europe, including the Baltic States, and the flights of Russian military aircraft over Western Europe increase the risk of direct confrontation, the article says. Having in mind this possibility, the Western countries will start to rethink their military budgets reduced for the last time, that complicate their efforts to reduce high fiscal deficits, analysts said EIU, adding that rising tensions may lead to the emergence of margins for political risks to oil prices.
The most dangerous risk EIU believes the sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy that could lead to a further fall in commodity prices, including oil and metals, which are stronger affected countries in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa South of the Sahara. In addition, according to the study, the growing dependence of Western manufacturers and retailers from sales in China and other emerging markets, will lead in the implementation of this scenario have serious consequences for the economies of the U.S. and the EU.
A high degree of risk EIU assigned a probable crisis of corporate debt in emerging markets due to volatility in the currency markets. Any such crisis will cause a major panic in the global capital markets and force governments to defend their banking systems, which could lead to a repeat of the European banking crisis at the beginning of 2010-ies.
To the risks of medium probability EIU attributed the collapse of the European Union and the Eurozone, win Donald trump in the presidential election in the United States and destabilize the world economy due to the increased terrorist threat from radical Islamists.
Scenarios such as the UK out of the European Union, the fighting in the South China sea and the oil price shock due to the reduction of investment in production, the EIU believes is possible, but unlikely.