Russian retail banks are unable to recover from the crisis

According to “the” on March 1, of the ten largest retail banks profitable by the end of February began only three: Rusfinance Bank, received by results of first two months the profit of 326 million rubles, “Orient Express” with profit in the 122.7 million rubles Tinkoff Bank (1.8 billion rubles).

The rest showed losses, with some increased compared with the previous month. So, “home Credit” has lost 1.7 billion rubles, which is 4.23% of more loss by the end of January. Renaissance Credit has lost 899 million rubles, which represents a 111% loss of January. The loss of “Delta Credit” has reached 2 billion rubles, an increase of 520%, “Russian standard” has lost 4.8 billion rubles., OTP Bank’s 1.25 bn Reduced losses, but still remained in the red by the end of February, Sovcombank (from 2.2 billion rubles to 154.5 million rubles ) and Summer-Bank (96 mln to 11.5 mln.).

In the fall of 2015, the analysts of “VTB Capital” Svetlana Aslanova and Jason Harwit in his review noted that the retail market may turn around in a positive way, as the maturity of loans granted in the period 2011-2013, is now behind us. Director on Bank ratings RAEX Mikhail Doronkin argued that despite the losses of 2015, the situation in the retail segment will improve. Then most large retail banks, such as “home Credit”, “Renaissance Credit”, “Delta Credit”, showed a profit in the third quarter, while losses at unprofitable banks declined markedly.

However, the relative stability of the financial result in banks monoliner still showed an improvement: the recovery of retail can be said when going back the demand for loans, banks ‘ portfolios will increase, will decrease the growth rate and the level of arrears, the Director for Bank ratings Agency “RusRating” Larisa Makarenko. While official data indicate no changes. The retail loan portfolio for the period from October 2015 declined by 1%, the level of arrears has increased from 8% to 8.1%, income in the system in General has also declined by about 2%, results Makarenko.

Profit growth in some retail monoliner largely due to the reduction of costs, optimization of banking business processes and efforts to reduce overdue debt on loans than the growth of retail lending, agrees senior analyst at the NRA Egor Ivanov.

However, you can still banks, which continue to suffer from deteriorating asset quality, and the creation of reserves continues to remain a key negative factor affecting the financial result, said a senior Director, head of Bank ratings of an ACRE Kirill Lukashuk. Assessment analyst financial institutions S&P Sergey Voronenko, reserves will be approximately 15% of the volume of credit portfolio of banks-monolinuron in 2016. The reason for this will be the continuing adverse macroeconomic environment, says Voronenko.

In General, the situation in the retail lending market directly depends on the economic situation. To say that there is a category of people who can issue retail loans too early, as in the unsecured segment of the population’s propensity to additional debt load remains low, says Voronenko. “As soon as we see the stabilization of incomes of the population, it will be possible to talk about stimulating domestic demand. But this will not happen before 2017”, — concluded the analyst.