Ukraine in the coming months will be to lobby for a further extension of EU sanctions against Russia. With such a forecast made by the American intelligence-analytical company Stratfor. Analysts emphasize that a unified position among EU countries in extending the anti-Russian sanctions no.
“After more than two years after the beginning of the conflict, consensus in the EU on sanctions may be threatened. And although the EU unanimously voted in favour of maintaining sanctions whenever this question was examined, some countries report that they are able to advocate for the lifting of sanctions in the next vote,” says a new report by Stratfor.
So, Italy and Hungary, which has traditionally taken a moderate position [against anti-Russian sanctions] and have strong economic ties with Russia, said that will not guarantee the renewal of sanctions, analysts say.
A decision on the extension or lifting of sanctions the EU should adopt unanimously. First question discusses the Council of foreign Ministers, recommending their decision to the Council of heads of state (European Council), which approves him unanimously.
Stratfor writes that the term “annoys” the Ukrainian authorities. “Kiev was based on the European Union not only to punish Russia for its actions in Ukraine, but also to support in the ongoing negotiations in Minsk on the conflict in Eastern Ukraine,” Stratfor notes.
Analysts notice that so far the EU has supported Ukraine’s position, putting pressure on Russia to do more on his part to the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Now, however, opinion within the Union on this issue were divided.
Thus, the Minister of foreign Affairs of Lithuania Linas Linkevicius said on 15 March that at the recent meeting of the EU Council on foreign Affairs, some countries urged Ukraine to decentralize. Linkevičius statements essentially reiterate Russia’s position and indicates that more and more countries-members of EU are ready to consider the lifting of sanctions with Russia, concludes Stratfor.
While Stratfor underlines that the decisive in the European Union remains the view of Germany. “And Berlin steadfast in his decision that Russia should fulfill the Minsk agreement, before sanctions will be lifted”, — analysts say. They stress that acting against the extension of anti-Russian sanctions, Italy, Hungary and Greece, most likely, will follow the position of Germany during the vote on sanctions.
On approval of Stratfor, some countries-EU members, particularly loyal to Russia, is also skeptical about Ukraine because of political instability in the country. “In fact, some EU countries have accused Ukraine of delaying economic and institutional reforms, despite the recent promise of Poroshenko that the political crisis in the country will be resolved before the end of this month,” analysts say.
“Ukraine needs the West more than the West needs Ukraine, and the government is unable to exert pressure on the European Union. — concludes Stratfor. — For this reason, Kiev will continue to use a number of tactics, including diplomatic measures and threats of the intensifying conflict, if only to prevent the lifting of sanctions against Russia”.