The five largest developers in Russia have reduced the multifamily housing in 2015 compared with 2014 by 21%, to 3.3 million square meters, according to “INFOLine-Analytics”, which annually releases the appropriate rating (see chart). The total share of the top 10 largest developers of Russia declined from 12.5% in 2014 to 10.1% last year. The total volume of commissioned housing in Russia, according to Rosstat, in 2015 amounted to 83.8 million sq m, which is 0.5% lower than a year earlier, and the proportion of the mass of residential construction, by contrast, grew by 8%, to 49.5 million sq. m.
As regarded the rating
“INFOLine-Analytics” collects data from the developers themselves, with their websites (including permits); if in finished form this information is lacking, analysts took the addresses of objects and sought the input of their own. “INFOLine-Analytics” tightened the requirements for data and clarified some of the figures, including in 2014, says company General Director Mikhail Burmistrov. Now the data is cleared from the apartments and non-residential premises.
By the end of 2015, the leadership has kept the group “Morton” Alexander Ruchyev. However, she failed to introduce more than 1 million square meters of housing, as planned, came just 947 thousand sq. m. Second place in the ranking went to LSR Group (754 sq m), which in 2014 ranked third. In third place went to the group of companies “PEAK” (665 sq m). Group SU-155, which until 2014 was generally ranked first, is now in fourth place with 500 thousand sq. m. According to a source close to SU-155, the actual input even slightly less in 2015, the company entered 463,5 thousand square meters of housing. The problem of SU-155, as recently revealed, began in the crisis of 2008.
The newcomers of the rating in 2015 became the St. Petersburg group of companies “CDS”, Moscow JSC “A101 development” and GC “MIC”, Novosibirsk “Discus plus”. The group of companies “CDS” in 2015, increased housing construction by 40% to 251 thousand square meters, “A101” by 47% to 237 thousand sq. m. “Discus plus” was the fastest growing top-15 — the company has handed over 224 thousand sq m, almost five times more than in 2014.
You need to understand that new housing is lagging behind its sale: the home that the company has handed over the state Commission last year, for the most part they sold a year or two ago (or even three — at the stage of excavation). Accordingly, it is the developers sell homes that will be entered into the rating “INFOLine-Analysts” in a few years.
Sale of apartments under new contracts in 2015 has fallen significantly: for example, the “LSR Group” — on 35%, the “Standard” — on 12%. Major non-public developers talked about the drop in sales of 10-15%. Nevertheless, the largest real estate developers to reduce the input plan. So, “Morton” is going in 2016-2018 to pass more than 3.3 million square meters of residential property — all of these projects have already been launched, said a representative of the company Igor Ladichuk. According to the representative of LSR Group, the company this year launched several new projects and plans to sell about 900 thousand square meters of housing in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg.
In 2016-2017, substantial cuts in housing will not happen, the crisis will affect the performance of 2018, said the head of “IRN-Consulting” Tatyana Kalyuzhnaya. “This is due to the fact that many facilities are located in industrial zones, and projects for the renovation of a long cycle of preparation for construction, — she explains. Some developers have several years of preparing the sites for construction, and start of construction, now they can’t — it would be uneconomical”. “No one will slow down with new projects, if they were planned, — agrees the head of Department of Analytics and consulting “best new Building” Sergey Lobzhanidze. — Developers will think in terms of falling consumer demand gradually come out of the situation: for example, not to discontinue the project, and to reduce the volume of construction”.
Meanwhile, housing prices fall. According to Rosstat, the average price of 1 sq m in new building in the third quarter amounted to 51.7 thousand rubles, which is 1.6% less than in the first. According to “IRN-Consulting” in the fourth quarter of 2015 average cost of 1 sq m in the Moscow new building in the zone between the Third transport ring and MKAD amounted to 204,7 thousand rubles In the end of last year the company predicted that this figure will decrease by the end of 2016 to 185 thousand rubles, and in 2017 — to 160 thousand roubles Sergey Lobzhanidze believes that the most popular mass housing in the capital by mid-2016 will drop to an average of 130 thousand rubles. per 1 sq. m. the Main driver of the decline in prices will be the continuing introduction of new projects, in the first half scheduled for commissioning 900 thousand sq m, he says.