Continue for about two months, the strengthening of the Russian currency (compared with a January high of the dollar against the ruble fell by about 20%), you may lose out on the foreign exchange market by the Central Bank, reports Bloomberg referring to analysts of the Bank Societe Generale. Experts warn that the rouble exchange rate about 6% higher than what was indicated in the annual forecasts.
“Tactically it makes sense to buy dollars at current levels, due to the increasing likelihood of Central Bank intervention,” the analyst believes is controlled by Societe Generale ROSBANK Eugene Koshelev. “It seems that the growth potential is limited. Further consolidation in the domestic market will grow in the range of 65 to 67 per dollar”, — he added.
Previously with a similar forecast was made by analysts at Citigroup, who estimated the Central Bank may start buying foreign currency to replenish its international reserves in case of a depreciation of the dollar to about 60 rubles., Analysts also note that in conditions of low world prices for oil the Russian government is interested in increasing ruble budget revenues from exports, while excessive strengthening of the ruble significantly reduces.
In mid-March 2016 the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said that the Bank of Russia may resume purchases of foreign currency on the market only if you are confident in the sustainability of the upward trend of the ruble.
“Those factors, which influence on the course now, may be soon quite volatile, so we do not yet see a sustainable trend,” explained Nabiullina, adding that it would be wrong now to enter the market, and then, when volatility increased, away again.
The last time the controller output is led to the weakening of the ruble. The Bank of Russia on 13 may 2015 daily bought on the domestic market of the currency in the volume of $100-200 million to replenish international reserves. 28 July operations had been suspended in connection with the increased volatility in the currency market. In July, the Central Bank bought $3.76 billion in June to $3,831 billion, in may $2,531 billion More than two months, the dollar rose by 8 rubles to 58.8 rubles per dollar.
During today’s trading on the Moscow exchange, the dollar’s value was approaching to 67.5 rubles, while a few days earlier rate fell to its lowest this year level of 67.2 rubles.
Last week that the depreciation of the dollar against major world currencies here again replaced by an upward trend and analysts said JPMorgan Chase & Co. According to experts, sale of the American currency by speculative players is close to completion, and then the probability of outflow of hot money from the market will be reduced.
In turn, the Russian President’s adviser Sergei Glazyev said that the current exchange rate of the ruble is undervalued against the us currency in three times, and the purchasing power of one dollar is equivalent to about 23-25 rubles.