Oil demand in 2016 returns to growth, concludes specializes in Economics of the global energy market expert of the Swiss Bank Crédit Suisse Jan Stuart in his research note, excerpts of which leads Bloomberg. It happens despite a number of adverse factors, among which concluded warm winter, the downturn in resource industries, as well as the slowdown in such emerging economies as Russia and Brazil.
The demand for oil is stable, which in part helps the continued recovery of the economies of North America and Europe, as well as long-term trends in the economies of developing markets. The threat of imminent recession in the global economy Stuart thinks exaggerated, even though concerns about global GDP growth to continue. So, after weak oil demand in the fourth quarter, he recovered in the two largest world economies — the USA and China.
“Overall demand for oil in the first quarter remains very sluggish,” reads the note. So, in the United States and Brazil, the demand in February has returned to growth after sagging in January, in other countries, such as South Korea or India, he continued to grow steadily. The demand for oil in China, apparently, has returned to growth, stated in the note.
Oil demand is now more associated with the needs of industrial production, and passenger transport, which increasingly used the growing middle class in developing countries. In these circumstances, Crédit Suisse predicts that the demand for oil will outstrip the growth of industrial production: “We expect a moderate recovery in oil demand this year if the economy will not slip into recession”. Based on the forecast of demand for oil, Stuart finds that in may the price of oil could reach $50/bbl.