The IMF has predicted a double-dip recession in Russia


The international monetary Fund (IMF) has revised to the downside their expectations of the Russian economy in the period of 2016-2017 years. Today, the organization has published the April edition of “world economic Outlook” (WEO). From this it follows that in 2016, according to the estimates of IMF experts, Russia’s GDP will shrink by 1.8%, and in 2017 will show a moderate growth of 0.8%.

The new numbers correspond to those, which last week passed the Agency TASS with reference to “informed sources”. The IMF experts note that “international sanctions have exacerbated the impact of low oil prices and structural weaknesses” of the Russian economy, the result of which was the lowering of expectations.

In the same week the world Bank downgraded its forecast for the Russian economy. In 2016, Russia’s GDP will fall by 1.9% against the earlier expected moderate decline of 0.7%.

The WEO is published by the Foundation twice a year — in April and October. In between publications, i.e., winter and summer, the IMF analysts can publish a “clarification” to the previous forecast. With these updates, Fund worsens its forecast of growth of Russian economy for the third time in a row.

So, in April 2015, the experts of the Fund expected in 2016, Russia’s GDP will shrink by 1.1%. In July “clarified” we are talking about minimal growth of 0.2%. Then, in the October WEO, the Fund reiterated that the Russian economy will shrink in 2016, 0.6% in the January update, the authors talked about the fall of the GDP by 1%, now downgraded the rate to 1.8%.

The first forecast for 2017, the IMF did in the January “update”: then analysts had expected growth of Russia’s GDP by 1%. Now expectations are also changed to the downside — the growth of the Russian economy in 2017 will amount, according to the IMF, about 0.8%.