Be in possession of the report of the Russian Railways with an updated financial model for the construction and operation of high-speed railway line Moscow — Nizhny Novgorod — Kazan. The main parameters of the financial model were discussed with officials of the Ministry of transport and Ministry of economic development, says a source close to RZD. The content confirmed Federal official.
The total project budget from 2017 to 2031 year to 1.8 trillion rubles. Most of the money monopoly wants to receive from the state.
Where the money
From total project budget of 1.8 trillion rubles the Russian Railways estimates the capital cost of 1.2 trillion rubles. the company classifies 1114,9 billion rubles for the construction of ways and still 84,6 billion rubles for the purchase of rolling stock. In 2014, the company estimated the capital cost of 132 billion rubles less. The representative of the Russian Railways said that the costs were adjusted because of indexes-deflators and the cost of debt financing, taking into account the changes in the key rate.
The project will be implemented on a concession model. The grantor will deliver to the Railways, the concessionaire is a Special project company (SPC). It is the SEC plays a Central role: it will involve the financing, to order the construction of ways and to dispose of the collected money for travel. The shareholders of SPC will be Russian Railways (41%), Chinese investment Fund “silk road” (38%), “daughter” RZD “Speed lines” (15%) and transportation companies (6%), not named in the document.
The project is proposed to develop largely on borrowed money — credit China Development Bank at 400 billion rubles, and loans of other banks up to 200 billion rubles (under state guarantees), infrastructure bonds 140 billion rubles., return 100 billion rubles from the national welfare Fund and 90 billion rubles from non-state pension funds. Another 100 billion rubles will receive the SEC in the Charter capital of Russian Railways, the 103 billion roubles — from the “silk road”, 40 billion rubles from “highways”, 17 billion rubles from companies.
In may 2015, it became known that Russian Railways, the transport Ministry, the Corporation “Chinese Railways” and the Chairman of the state Committee of China development and reform Commission signed a Memorandum of understanding and funding model of high speed railway Moscow — Kazan. “RIA Novosti” with reference to sources reported that the Chinese side is ready to make 104 billion rubles in the authorized capital of the SPV, as well as to grant credit in the amount of 250 billion rubles In the Railways, the increase of the loan did not comment, in China Development Bank on the letter have not yet responded.
Russian Railways will form its contribution by 50 billion rubles from the national wealth Fund and subsidies from the Federal budget in the amount of 50 billion to Buy infrastructure bonds the SEC, as planned by Russian Railways, will be Russian and international investors, and individual issues is still the same SWFs and pension funds. Thus, the total costs will be from the NWF to 150 billion rubles. up to a maximum of 290 billion rubles (in case the Fund will be the sole purchaser of the bonds). In a press-service of the Ministry of Finance has not responded to the request .
The General Director of Agency “INFOLine-Analytics” Mikhail Burmistrov doubted the reality of the proposed model. For example, any of the banks in terms of sanctions to find 200 billion roubles. “Earlier on the construction in Sochi for the web, but now he has problems”, — said Burmistrov. Doubt the expert and the ability to attract at least 150 billion rubles from NWF. “For money Fund a lot of competition, and the CSM, to put it mildly, not the most competitive project,” says Burmistrov.
“It’s hard to say whether VEB to participate, but some part is likely to be purchased by the RDIF and state banks that always come to the rescue in such projects”, — says Yelena Sakhnova from “VTB Capital”. In its opinion, the SEC has a chance to find lenders, because the funding will be stretched in time and the banks have excess liquidity when the shortage of good borrowers.
The cost of the project
The financial model was constructed based on yields of 15% for shareholders of the concessionaire and 10% to financial investors. The agreement between RZD, the SEC and creditors it is planned to prescribe the duty of the Russian government to meet commitments to SEC, if that will not be able to repay debts. “This reduces the risk to lenders and the cost of debt financing”, — the document says.
To ensure the profitability of the SEC can, if it will work myself. The sources of income will be charges for the use of the CSM provides high-speed and high-speed trains and trains, the income from plying at night conventional trains, rental of commercial premises and income from freight transport.
In the beginning of 2014 Russian Railways has estimated the potential passenger traffic on HSR in the first year of the launch of 10.5 million people, in 2030-m — 18,2 million and in 2050 — 24.8 million people. Then the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev questioned the projections, saying that for him the hypothesis of the passenger flow, “not obvious”. In the fall of 2015, head of the Centre for the organization of high-speed Railways Gennady Petrushenko said that the company expects passenger traffic of 10 million in the first year of the launch, adding that over the next ten years he “will grow almost twice”.
In the financial model not specified plans of passengers, however, the press service of Russian Railways said that the forecast of 10 million people in the first year of operation is stored. The document States the total ticket revenue in the operation period of the highway (2020-2056 years) to 8.3 trillion rubles Directly in the sale of tickets will be the carrier (in the first years of operation of the road — Railways). The SEC will get the money from the carrier in the form of infrastructure payment, which total amount for the same period will amount to 7.5 trillion rubles.
The discounted payback period of the project is 31 years. It is calculated taking into account subsidies in the amount of 643,2 billion rubles of the money the SEC expects to receive from the state the parts from 2020 to 2031 year for debt repayment and achievement of the required return of the shareholders. “Subsidies are needed in case the passenger flow will be less than expected and investors will not be able to return capital investment,” said a source in the Ministry familiar with the letter Misharin. From the report of the Railways, the subsidies are a key element of the project, without government support he doesn’t pay.
Assessment Burmistrova, the business model of the project based on “overly optimistic” forecast of passenger traffic. “First, this forecast was made in the economic situation, when it seemed that the welfare of people will increase. Secondly, do not take into account the emergence of low-cost airlines. Start “Winning”, it’s a direct competitor of the CSM, in my opinion, more successful”, — says the expert.
Sakhnova stresses that passenger traffic will strongly depend on what the ticket price will be established by the carrier: if the price is right CSM will be able to compete with low-cost airlines. First Vice President Alexander Misharin said in a high-speed train will be as many as four classes of service. The cheapest ticket will cost 2 thousand rubles, the most expensive — 10-12 thousand