Only 4% of respondents in small towns of the graduates plan to stay there after school, found a leading researcher in the Institute for social analysis and prediction Ranepa Yulia Florinskaya (her report will be presented on April seventeenth international scientific conference in HSE). Ten years ago, graduates who do not want to leave small towns, was 14%. The absolute majority chose “migration strategy”, which means that in the province there are fewer young people.
About one-fifth of the graduates have not decided where they plan to live and study. Three quarters, however, just know that it will live in other city of Russia. Overall, the proportion choosing the migration strategy has increased from 64% in 2004 to 75% in 2015. With more than half of respondents in 2015 are going to leave forever.
Florin notes, Recalling the experience of past editions of the school that few of those who managed to get a job in a large city, returns home: “three-quarters of all planning the migration of graduates, probably forever “lost” as the people of their cities”. The share of those who potentially selects non-return migration (plan to leave “forever” or “for a longer period” than at the time further study) since 2004 has almost doubled — from 44% of respondents to 73% by 2015. “It turns out that the improvement of the material living conditions of the population in 2000-ies and the inflow of money into the infrastructure of small towns does not positively impact on the attractiveness of these cities for young people, on the contrary,” said the report’s author.
The report is based on data collected in the framework of the research project ENCAP Ranepa. In four cities of Vyazniki in Vladimir oblast, Rtishchevo in Saratov region, Kamen-na-Obi, Altai Krai and Satka in the Chelyabinsk region conducted a survey of seniors. Only in the anonymous survey took part 420 of future graduates.
The small city is considered a city with a population of no more than 50 thousand people. As of 1 January 2015 of such settlements was 790, they were about 16% of the population — more than 16 million people. It is impossible to extend the conclusions obtained for the four cities included in the study, all small cities of Russia, said Yulia Florinskaya. But nevertheless, from the point of view of remote small towns the results are quite revealing: for the impossible “pendulum” migration, for example, the Moscow region, where graduates continue to live in the city, but to study and later to work I go to Moscow.
Go to study
Quite often students evaluate their families as secured: 30% said they have access to everything except the purchase of the apartment, and 34% can buy everything they want, accordingly, most families are likely to financially support children studying in large cities.
Over the past 10 years “boom of higher education” has increased markedly: whereas in 2004 about three-quarters of graduates were going to get it after school, now at 91%. The numbers have grown even among the Trinity: in 2004, only 40% of high school students in small towns, who perform mostly on “3”, was going to get a higher education, now already 71%. But many have the problem of choosing a profession: every fifth Respondent could not answer this question. However, 85% of these future graduates still are going to go to University — education essentially becomes an end in itself.
According to the survey, small cities cannot meet the demand of graduates on a properly-paid — in their understanding — work. More than half of respondents believe that normal life you need to earn in the range of 50 thousand rubles per month — with the average salary in the city only a thousand 17-19 In October 2014, the HSE presented the results of a study which showed that the average per capita monthly income of residents of large cities are almost twice more than those who live in small towns and rural areas (23,8 thousand rbl. against 11.2 thousand).
The majority of graduates had been in larger settlements (such as regional centers), almost half — in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Even “the most distant and the most degraded” Kamen-na-Obi about 29% were in Moscow and 21% in St. Petersburg. Only 5% of respondents never travelled out of the city, to the report. That is, the students had the opportunity to make some idea about the cities in which they go to move.
The effect of the exam
Unexpected effect for the demographic situation in remote towns gave unified state examination (use), says Florin. Now the majority of those who graduated from 11 classes, — horoshist and honors, she notes in her report. Those who have studied worse, left after the 9th class in the schools and colleges, fearing the need to pass the exam. It turned out that the graduates (graduates of 11 classes) leaving more than 10 years ago, but less than 10 years ago.”From the point of view of preservation of a share of the youth in small towns is a positive fact, as graduates with secondary education more often choose life at home and not out in the larger cities,” explains the expert.
Some return to their town if they find there a good job: for example, among top-managers of enterprises, meet old residents of these cities. City-forming enterprises now have little staff shortage, says Florin. Some of the graduates they send to the universities for certain skills. However, as shown by the survey, the presence of enterprises has little effect on the selection of graduates to the profession.
In 2013, the Ministry of regional development has developed the concept of development of small cities for the period 2014-2020. Among the main problems of such settlements therein mentioned and the decrease of the population (on average by 3% per year). However, in 2014 the Ministry of regional development was abolished and its functions distributed among other departments.