In the 14 April report, the IEA, on the prospects of the oil market, says that in the second half of 2016, the surplus oil will be reduced to 200 barrels per day, while in the first half of the year it will be about 1.5 million barrels a day. The world oil market has “come close to a state of balance”, according to experts IEA.
The engine of these processes, as noted by the IEA, a reduction of the oil production outside OPEC to the lowest level since 1992. First of all, production will decline in the United States. Even the return of Iran to the global oil market will have limited impact on the balance of supply and demand for energy, as the IEA indicates, Tehran is entering the market very gradually because of financial sanctions, which partly continue to operate.
At the same time, the IEA considers that even if the upcoming April 17 meeting of the countries-oil producers in the Doha agreement is reached about the freezing of production, it will have a serious impact on the market.
Global oil demand in 2016 will grow by 1.2 barrels per day. While India is “close to having to shift China from a position of the main engine of growth of energy demand”.
The new forecast sharply differs from the previous forecast, released in late February. Then the IEA predicted that the levels of supply and demand in the oil market is poised to 2017, and in the first half the oversupply of oil may exceed the 1.75 million barrels per day.
As noted by Bloomberg among analysts of the view that the oil market is moving towards restoration of equilibrium, is becoming increasingly popular. In particular, a recent report by Credit Suisse stated on the reduction of volumes of oil in storage in the third quarter of 2016.
From mid-January the price of oil has increased significantly: a barrel of Brent crude since mid-January increased from $28,21 $scored 43.69 14 April. Leading oil traders, among them Trafigura, Vitol, Gunvor, Mercuria, Castleton and trading division of Glencore, believe that the bottom in oil prices has been reached and by the end of the year oil prices will rise to $50 per barrel.