The results of the negotiations in Doha, which will be attended by representatives of a number of major oil-producing countries, will not lead to a drastic change in the price of the world oil market, says the Minister of Finance of Russia Anton Siluanov. “We do not expect any changes in the price (of oil), despite the negotiations that are currently oil-producing countries,” the Minister said in an interview with CNBC, calling the current level of oil prices “acceptable” for Russia.
“Our economic plans have been drawn up in accordance with the current price level of around $40 per barrel. In the face of slowing global economic growth and increasing oil reserves, there are serious grounds to speak about the increase in oil prices. We understand that we have to work in conditions, when prices fluctuate around $40 per barrel”, — said Siluanov.
Earlier the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev ruled out the possibility of the collapse of world oil prices to $25 per barrel in the event of failure of the negotiations in Doha, where, as expected, it can be decided to freeze oil production. A small temporary decrease in quotations, according to the Minister, may occur, but then the price growth will resume, although he is quick and will not even in the case of adoption in Qatar the decision to freeze oil production volumes.
“To a large extent this has already been laid, quickly the prices will not grow. But still the growth will continue”, — concluded the speaker.
In turn first Deputy Chairman of the CBR Ksenia Yudaeva said today that in the formation of monetary policy the Bank of Russia still intends to proceed from the basic scenario, whereby the average price of a barrel of oil in 2016 will be $30. “It was basic, but compared with the fact that suddenly now in connection with the situation in the market mood has changed dramatically, it looks quite conservative, but we believe that while a lot of prerequisites in the direction of that $30 is a reasonable scenario for this period”, — declared on Friday to journalists Yudaeva (quoted by “Interfax”).
The Deputy head of the Central Bank explained that a premature shift towards the optimistic scenario in conditions of high volatility in the market can lead to new problems.
“If we behave according to the optimistic scenario, then we may be in the wrong position, it turns out that we assume too quickly cut rates, then we will have to increase them, there would begin such a jolt. For us most suitable now, this conservative scenario, it allows us goals to reach and more or less smooth trajectory for the bet to have, not to twitch in all directions depending on the market situation”, — said Yudaeva.
Answering the question whether the Central Bank to adjust its baseline forecast, Yudaeva said that the new forecast will be released in July, but about how much it will differ from the present, too early to say.
During today’s trading on the stock exchange ICE cost of a barrel of Brent on the eve of the scheduled 17 April meeting in Doha is around $43,5. At least the price dropped to $43,3, which is 1.23% lower than the closing level yesterday.
“The market is too focused on positive risks from the Doha meeting, although the fundamental impact of this factor on the market is likely to be limited. The source of negative catalysts are likely to become weak compliance, hedging by producers and macro statistics, and not the meeting itself,” say analysts at Morgan Stanley led by Adam Longana.