The Doha negotiations have gone the condition of the January production level


The meeting of the countries-oil producers in Doha, which, according to the original plan, was supposed to end at 11:00 local time (coincides with Moscow), as of 18:50 is still ongoing. Nevertheless, according to have fallen into the possession of the media to the new project agreements, the negotiating parties have failed to agree on specific measures for the freezing of oil production.

According to the draft document, seen by Reuters, oil producers, both OPEC members and countries outside the cartel must agree to freeze oil production “at a reasonable level”. In the agreement should involve all the members of OPEC and other major oil producers.

The new draft agreement is so vague that the interlocutor Reuters from OPEC said that “not sure if I would call it freezing”.

In the previous draft agreement was contained much more specific. As reported by Reuters, who on April 16 was able to see the document, the agreement provided for the freezing of oil production until October 1, 2016 at the level of January 2016, with compliance and execution of the agreements provided for the establishment of a special Supervisory Commission. In October a new meeting dedicated to oil production level, expected to be held in Russia.

The meeting was scheduled to begin in Doha today at 9:00 at the Sheraton, but was postponed. As reported by Reuters, the last time Saudi Arabia began to insist that the agreement will have to be OPEC countries. This condition, at the moment, actually renders the agreement inoperative, since the Iranian authorities have repeatedly emphasized that not going to freeze production until, until you increase the daily production to 4 million barrels. A meeting in Doha of representatives of Tehran has ignored.

In the end, the meeting began with a six hour delay. During these six hours, the members of the delegations visited the Palace of the Emir of Qatar, where representatives of the delegations of Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Qatar were trying to reach agreement among themselves.

Participate in the negotiations of 18 countries – all members of OPEC (excluding Libya and Iran) and Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Colombia, Mexico and Oman.

Analysts before the talks, predicted that the failure of the Doha talks has a negative impact on the price of oil and the ruble. “If the Doha negotiations fail, the price of Brent could fall to $35 per barrel or lower, and the dollar will be worth 70-75 rubles”, — was stated in the review of Sberbank CIB. Similar to the movement of the price of oil in the event of failure of the Doha talks and analysts gave the Bank of America Merill Lynch and Saxo Bank (the fall of the price of a barrel of Brent to $30-35).

According to the senior analyst Sberbank CIB Valery Nesterov, the price of oil following the results of the Doha talks will go down in any scenario, but will not fall below $30 per barrel even if the talks fail, not conceptis the signing of the document. If is signed “toothless agreement” that obliges them to join him initially did not support the freezing of oil production at the level of January OPEC, Iran and Libya, or stipulating the termination of validity in the case of increasing production by Iran, the oil price can be adjusted less drastically, to the level of $35-40 per barrel. The expert believes that the failure of the talks in Doha will mean a blow to the image of OPEC.