After the failure of negotiations to freeze the oil analysts at banks Societe Generale and Rabobank expect the fall of the ruble against the dollar to values above 70 RUR/ USD, according to Bloomberg. A specialist in the currencies of developing countries Rabobank in London Peter Mathis stated that he expects in the coming days the growth of the dollar to 70 roubles, and then and its possible reinforcement to 75 rubles.
Moscow analyst of ROSBANK, controlled by société générale, Evgeny Koshelev made a return to exchange rate above 70 rubles/$, adding that it would be a temporary phenomenon. In his opinion, it is difficult to believe in the preservation of oil prices above $40/bbl. after Doha.
Yann Quelen from Swissquote Bank is confident that financial markets expects strong disappointment at the lack of agreement on freezing of oil production. He believes that “the Russian economy, which relies heavily on oil revenues, will continue to experience difficulties”.
Russian markets analyst at Danske Bank in Helsinki Vladimir Miklashevsky told Bloomberg the current weak ruble is a good incentive for shopping. According to him, although the ruble and started to affect after the failure of the Doha talks global fatigue risks in the medium to long term it is configured on the strengthening of the Russian currency.
On the eve of an oil summit in Doha Sberbank CIB analysts predicted growth of dollar exchange rate to 70-75 rubles in case of failure of negotiations and its extension to 62-65 rubles in case of success. After receiving the news from Qatar Nicholas Podlevskikh from “Zerich capital Management” found that the dollar will strengthen on Monday to 68-69 RUB.
Other experts say that panic in the market. Managing Director for investments “TKB BNP Paribas investment partners” Vladimir Chuprov stated that the dynamics of trade will remain calm, as market participants were prepared for the fact that the meeting in Doha will not give results. Chief expert of Center for economic forecasting Gazprombank Yegor Susin in advance thought on the disappointing results of the summit oil prices fall to $40/bbl. and will lead to a rise in the dollar to about 68 RUB.
After the failure of talks in Doha the price of a barrel Brent crude fell 6% to $40,16, but by 13:17 GMT fall has decreased to 1.95% at an oil price of $currently 42.26/barrel.
Dollar and Euro rose sharply after the opening of the Moscow stock exchange, rising by more than two rubles to RUB 68,80 and 77,736 rubles, respectively. Then the market corrected: at 13:20 the dollar was worth 67,45 rubles (plus of 1.51% to the closing) and € 76,17 € (plus 1,69%).