Sunday talks 18 largest oil producers, which account for about half of production, in Doha ended in failure: participants could not agree on a freeze of production. Immediately after the opening of trading on the London stock exchange on Monday Brent crude fell almost 7%, to $40,14 per barrel. By 17:00 Moscow time the decline was reduced to 3.16%, up to $41,78 per barrel. On this background decrease in quotations of the largest Russian oil companies.
On the Moscow stock exchange of the action “Rosneft” have fallen in price on 2,8% (its market capitalization decreased to 3.19 trillion rubles on 17:00 GMT). The cost of LUKOIL fell by 3,38%, to 2.32 trillion rubles, ordinary shares of “Surgutneftegaz” have fallen by 3.4%, papers “Gazprom oil” — on 1,26%. Ordinary shares of Bashneft and Tatneft fell by 3.02 and 2.93%, respectively. Total cost of the six largest Russian oil companies decreased by about 250 billion rubles.
The index of the Moscow exchange MICEX decreased by only 1.98% (17:00 MSK).
By the evening of Monday quotations for Brent oil moved to growth — from 18:44 Moscow time has grown on 0,39%, to $43,27 per barrel. As a result, at the end of trading on the Moscow stock exchange falling of actions of the Russian oil companies has slowed: Rosneft to 1.89%, LUKOIL — to 1.61%, ordinary actions “Surgutneftegaz” to 2.08%. Ordinary shares of Tatneft and Bashneft fell by 1.12% and 2.21 per cent respectively, the paper of “Gazprom oil” has lost only on 0,96%. The MICEX index on the day fell by 0.79%.
The drop in the shares of Russian oil companies is a direct consequence of the collapse of oil prices caused by the failure of negotiations to freeze production in Doha, says analyst “URALSIB capital” Alexei Kokin. But this effect will be short lived: the long-term trend is now on the rise in the price of oil, the expert believes. This is due to the gradual decrease in oil production in countries outside OPEC, primarily shale oil in the U.S., he says.
This week the market turmoil continues, a possible new failure, but by the end of the year worth waiting for the prices to $50 a barrel, predicts Kokin. Portfolio Manager Asset Management GL Sergey Vakhrameev agrees that the sharp collapse of oil prices Monday morning — the game of speculators for a fall, which will last no more than a week. But his prediction of oil prices is more pessimistic: the end of the year it will cost $30-40 per barrel, based on current fundamentals.
The Ministry of energy is configured to be more optimistic. In the current environment the price $40-60 per barrel of oil would be normal and for budgeting, and for normal operation of the industry, said the Agency TASS, the Minister of energy Alexander Novak following the results of negotiations in Doha. According to him, the lack of agreement in Doha will not lead to negative consequences for the Russian oil industry, but may “have quite a negative impact on the price and on the market.”