Trading currency on the Moscow stock exchange opened on 18 April 2016 by the sharp fall of the ruble. A few minutes after the start of trading the dollar for the first time since April 7, has exceeded 68 rubles, reaching the maximum level of 68.8 rubles., which is 2,353 rubles above the level of the close of trading on April 15.
Simultaneously, the Euro reached RUR 77,736, which is 2,786 rubles above the closing level of the previous trading session.
The ruble weakens amid slump in oil prices after the unsuccessful conclusion of the negotiations of the largest oil producers in Doha. Contrary to the expectations of optimists, the meeting failed to reach agreement about freezing of oil production. During today’s trading on the stock exchange ICE futures price for Brent oil for delivery in June 2016 declined to $40.1 per barrel, which is of 6.96% below the closing level of the previous auction and the lowest level since April 8, 2016.
“The disappointing results of the summit of OPEC have no effect on the fundamental situation on the oil market, but have expressed the adverse market backdrop. This has led to a serious gap in morning electronic trading on futures: futures on Brent went below the 200-day average back in the range of $38-42 per barrel. with risks test its lower border at the beginning of this week,” notes the analyst of PSB Evgeny Loktionov.
A dollar today will be traded at the level of 68 rubles, said the head of trading IR “ATON” Yaroslav Podsevatkin. “The reaction of the currency market is likely the same as oil: a sharp jump in and stop approximately at the level of 68 rubles,” he explains. According to Podsevatkina, the results of the meeting in Doha, offset by a strike in Kuwait as a result of which production fell by about 1.6 million barrels. “It’s practically the entire surplus, which was on the market. For this reason, oil remains above $40 per barrel. If there was no strike, it is likely that prices would go below this level,” says Podsevatkin.
“The situation in the oil market now like Latin American TV series: the exporting countries meet, negotiate, change their minds and so on. But in any case, all events that occur (decrease in US production, strikes in Kuwait, and others) demonstrate the willingness in the world to maintain oil prices at a higher level than they were. Most likely, we will not see more oil prices below $30-35 per barrel,” says Podsevatkin, adding that the level of $40-45 per barrel most likely. “The dollar in this situation will be about 65-70 rubles,” he says.
The decline in oil prices “could trigger some profit taking in ruble, however, the sale of foreign currency by exporters in connection with the beginning of the tax period can help to smooth out potential volatility,” write analysts at VTB Capital Maxim Korovin and Tatiana Chernyavskaya my morning review.
By 10:05 Moscow time the price of a barrel Brent crude on the ICE stock exchange was $40,59, the dollar on the Moscow stock exchange reached 68.65 per RUB, EUR — RUB 77,599