On Monday, April 18, in the first minutes of trading on the London stock exchange the price of Brent crude oil fell by almost 6% from $43,1 to $40,16 per barrel. This happened after negotiations about the freezing of oil production were unsuccessful. It was expected that on Sunday, the exporting countries agreed to record production levels in January. On these expectations, the price of oil increased in recent weeks.
However, after a sharp drop in the price of Brent crude recovered to 9.00 GMT to $41,23 (minus 3.78 per cent to close on Friday).
Managing investment Director TKB BNP Paribas investment partners Vladimir Chuprov believes that the dynamics of trading on Monday will be calm enough: “panic should not be”. According to him, participants of the market were low expectations from the meeting in Doha. Chief expert of Center for economic forecasting Gazprombank Yegor Susin previously thought that market participants may be disappointed with the results of the meeting, and “the price of oil could fall to around $40 per barrel”. In such a scenario, the dollar could rise to about 68 rubles, he said. Friday, April 15, at the close of trading on the Moscow exchange, the dollar was worth RUB 66,4
“It is more important that expectations are growing that the second half will meet the balance of demand and supply in the oil market,” says Zubrow, adding that the oil price should fall again to $30 per barrel. Unsuccessful negotiations will not change the positive mood of investors, said earlier the analyst of PSB Alexey Egorov. “Macroeconomic data are improving, so everyone is expecting the growth in oil demand. Quotes will continue to test higher levels in anticipation of further negotiations of the countries-exporters” — said the analyst. Analyst ING Bank Dmitry Polevoy does not expect a significant fall of the ruble: “Our currency maintains a positive trade balance, and in addition, at the end of the month will begin tax payments. Most likely, the pair dollar-ruble will be traded at the level of one of the last two weeks,” said the analyst. In early April the dollar was worth on the Moscow exchange RUB 66-68
In addition to the negotiations in Doha, the oil market is affected by a strike in Kuwait where the volume of supply of oil will decrease on 1,5-1,8 million barrels a day, says independent expert Andrei Lifshitz. On Sunday morning the workers of oil companies of Kuwait announced the start of a strike in protest of the authorities regarding the plans to cut wages and benefits. As a result, enterprises were forced to implement an emergency plan and work to reduce extraction of raw materials. “To resolve this conflict, and therefore to restore previous production levels in Kuwait (2.8 million barrels per day) is unlikely earlier than in 3-5 weeks,” — said Lifshitz.