The Ministry of energy expects the average price of a barrel of oil by 2018 will rise to $65, said the first Deputy head of Department Alexey Teksler National oil and gas forum on Tuesday. He noted that in the second half of 2016, the average oil price may be around $45 per barrel, reports RIA Novosti. In 2017 the price of oil, according to Teksler may be at $50 per barrel.
The Russian budget for 2016 calculated on the price of oil at $50 a barrel, but earlier the Finance Ministry announced the intention to adjust it based on the price of $40. On 16 April, the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov reported that the same price is planned to lay in and the forecast for 2017. “We discussed the forecasts in the government, agreed that oil prices will be $40 per barrel in 2016 and in 2017,” said Siluanov (quoted by TASS).
The economic development Ministry previously proposed in the base scenario of development of economy the price of oil to $40 in 2016, $45 in 2017 and $50 in the years 2018-2019. Updated macroeconomic forecast for 2016 and development scenarios for 2017-2019 years, with these parameters the economic development Ministry submitted to the government in mid-April. “I guess we can say that (these settings) to be generally supported,” — said the head of the MAYOR Alexei Ulyukayev
If the oil in 2017-2018 would rise to $52-55 per barrel, Russia’s GDP may grow by 1.4% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018, said the Bank in its forecast published on April 14. In the case of the stabilization of prices at around $40 per barrel and the continuing limited access to world capital markets the economy of Russia “expect low, almost stagnant growth rate” is specified in the forecast. In these circumstances, Russia’s GDP in 2018 will exceed the level of 2015 is less than 2%, predicts the Bank.